This story is changing so quickly, it's all but impossible to stay on top of--but here are a few key issues--cribbed from conversations and my own observations--to keep you moored.
First of all, because everything's moving so fast, just about anything's possible.
Second, it really does seem as if the Blue Dog negotiations are dead. Differences are irreconcilable and time is basically up.
Earlier today, Waxman struck a deal with rural Democrats, concerned with Medicare reimbursement rates in their districts. It's unclear whether he thought that deal meant he'd shored up enough support for the bill that he no longer needed acquiescence of the Blue Dogs on his committee, but once that deal was struck he told them, basically, to play ball or go home. So they went home.
Democrats seem to have entered regroup mode, after mixed messages flew across the Capitol. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said on the floor that a vote on a bill before recess is unlikely (though he added that the House might stay in session past next Friday if success was in reach). House Whip James Clyburn, was more hopeful, saying that all decisions would be made after Waxman and Speaker Pelosi sit down and take stock of where things stand. And within the last hour or so there's been something of a lock down on new, verifiable information as Democratic leaders figure out what to do next.