Just how bad is it out there? Consider the TPM charts below showing the poll averages from each of the elections for Senate seats currently held by Democrats. Not a single Democrat in a contested race sits above 50 percent. Worse yet, many of them are outright losing to Republicans.
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Election Day is still weeks off, and anything, and we mean anything, can happen to change these numbers on a dime. And it's important to remember that there are so many more factors to consider than just polls, which, as we've proven again and again, can be wrong. Many of these Democratic incumbents have mountains of cash in the bank and President Obama has continued to be a massive fundraising strength for Democratic senators despite his unpopularity nationally. Plus, some of these Dems are up against barely-ready-for-prime-time Republicans with extreme views, and those numbers seem like they could waver.
But if every TPM Poll Average culled from our PollTracker and seen below were to hold on through Nov. 2, Democrats would lose at least five seats, and possibly as many as eight.