Today is a big day in Massachusetts, with voters headed to the polls in the Democratic primary for the special Senate election -- and in a heavily Democratic state, this will be tantamount to electing the successor to Ted Kennedy.
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The four main candidates are state Attorney General Martha Coakley, Rep. Mike Capuano, City Year founder Alan Khazei, and businessman and Boston Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca. The favorite for the Republican nomination is state Sen. Scott Brown, against frequent GOP candidate Jack E. Robinson.
Unfortunately, there's been surprisingly little public polling on this race. The last survey was a Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago, which put Coakley ahead with 36%, Capuano at 21%, and Khazei and Pagliuca at 14% each. In addition, special elections are inherently difficult to predict with their low and irregular turnout patterns and heavy reliance on get-out-the-vote efforts. So while Coakley is viewed as the frontrunner, anything could have happened in the last two weeks, and anything could happen today.