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If Republican Scott Brown wins Ted Kennedy's Senate seat tomorrow, would the House go along with the health care "Plan B" we outlined earlier today? Would the House pass the Senate bill, on a promise from leadership and the White House that their concerns would be addressed in a filibuster-proof bill down the line?

"Certainly the dynamic would change depending on what happens in Massachusetts," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told the San Francisco Chronicle today. "Just a question about how we would proceed. But it doesn't mean we won't have a health care bill.... Let's remove all doubt, we will have health care -- one way or another."

House aides say passing the Senate bill would be an extremely hard sell, and may not be possible. But they, and a growing number of members, are insisting that their main focus right now remains on "Plan A": amending the Senate bill and sending it back for final passage.

The hope, it seems, is that, if Brown wins, Democrats would have enough time to vote down a Republican filibuster in the Senate before Brown gets sworn in.

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The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of Connecticut provides a further data point that independent Sen. Joe Lieberman, who is next up for reelection in 2012, may be unelectable.

In a two-way race with second-term Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy, Lieberman trails Murphy by a 45%-26% margin. In a three-way race with Gov. Jodi Rell, who is retiring this year, Rell comes in first with 47%, with Murphy in a distant second at 25%, and Lieberman with 23%.

Two weeks ago, a survey from Public Policy Polling (D) found that Lieberman had alienated every partisan group in the state -- Democrats, Republicans and independents -- by both weakening progressive efforts on the health care bill but ultimately voting for the Senate bill itself.

President Obama will give the first State Of The Union Address of his presidency on Wednesday, Jan. 27, according to a tweet from White House Deputy Press Secretary Bill Burton this evening.

TPMDC has confirmed the speech will begin at 9 p.m. In addition to the standard live television broadcast, the Obama administration announced today that the speech will be streamed live on the White House website.

Scott Brown, the Republican candidate in the Massachusetts special election, said today he has already made travel plans to go to Washington, D.C., this Friday if he wins.

As we've reported, Massachusetts won't certify election results for about 15 days after tomorrow's election, and the U.S. Senate won't swear a winner in until they get that paperwork from the state.

But Brown has said he expects to be sworn in right away.

The timing is important because Brown's vote would end Democrats' filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. If he's sworn in before the Senate votes on health care, Democrats will have to take extreme measures -- such as trying to persuade the House to adopt the much more conservative Senate bill or going for reconciliation -- in order to pass the legislation.

A new poll sponsored by Politico shows Scott Brown (R) with a comfortable lead the day before the Massachusetts special election to replace Ted Kennedy in the Senate. The poll, conducted Sunday night for Politico by InsiderAdvantage, shows Brown leading Martha Coakley 52-43, with Libertarian Joe Kennedy hovering at 2% support.

Internal numbers from the poll are even more damaging to Coakley's chances. The results show Brown leading by 41% among independent voters and by 15%. Other recent polls have shown Coakley's support among independents to be waning, and the Politico poll is not the first released today to show Brown solidly ahead in the horserace.

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With the Senate Democrats indicating that they will wait for the state of Massachusetts to follow its own procedural guidelines for certifying a winner in the Massachusetts special Senate election, the next question should be asked: What are the state's guidelines and procedures?

We asked Michelle Tassinari, the legal counsel for the state Elections Division, and she sent us over a list of the relevant statutes.

First of all, no certificate of election can be issued until at least ten days following a special election, and in real terms it would probably be at least 15 days. State law can allow for a certificate seven days after a special election -- but that law is trumped by the federal laws governing overseas and military ballots, which are triggered because this is an election for federal office, and which create a longer window in this election.

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ARG's latest poll from the Massachusetts Senate race shows Scott Brown (R) extending his lead over Martha Coakley (D) in the final hours campaigning.

The previous ARG poll, taken Jan. 12-14, showed Brown with a 3-point lead over Coakley, 48-45. The new poll, released today, was taken over the weekend and shows Brown's lead to now be 7 points. He leads Coakley 52-45, with 2% undecided. The margin of error is 4%. Libertarian Joe Kennedy, who some have suggested might split the anti-Coakley vote tomorrow, polled at just 2% in both surveys.

Yet another Tea Partier is sounding the alarm about the upcoming National Tea Party Convention and questioning the motives of its organizer.

Shane Brooks worked closely with convention organizer Judson Phillips and his Tea Party Nation (TPN) group, until a falling out last month in part over what Brooks saw as TPN's overly close relationship with the GOP, which Brooks distrusts. Now, Brooks, based in Texas, has posted a YouTube video urging fellow activists to "boycott the National Tea Party Convention," and declaring, "we will not allow Tea Party Nation or any group to achieve national leadership of this historic grassroots revolution by the people!"

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