A memo leaked today to ABC News, which was circulated to the Martha Coakley campaign and national Democrats in December, outlines some of the problems that Coakley -- then with a 51%-32% lead over Scott Brown -- might face come Election Day. Namely, conservative independents who don't like President Obama.
The memo says Coakley has a "strength of support," but warns that independent voters "look pretty conservative, and the national political context is not helping us much."
It was written by Daniel R. Gotoff of Lake Research Partners after conducting an internal poll and reportedly circulated all the way to the White House.
"Obama, whose job performance is already just barely net positive, is rated solidly negatively by a majority of independents," Gotoff wrote.
"Over the next weeks, our task is to consolidate Democrats and break even among independents. We do pretty well at that right now, but there are about a quarter of Democrats who aren't yet voting for us. And while we have a marginal lead among independents, they will be a battleground throughout this race," the memo reads.