TPM News

The Colorado GOP isn't thrilled that former GOP Rep. Tom Tancredo is running as a third-party candidate in the state's gubernatorial race. And a new poll of the contest finds that the GOP's fear -- that Tancredo will draw votes away from the Republican nominee in the race -- seems very justified.

A SurveyUSA poll of the race shows Tancredo almost splitting the GOP vote, giving Democrat John Hickenlooper a big double-digit advantage over his potential general election foes. In a two-candidate race, the new poll gives Hickenlooper a 48%-43% lead over Republican Scott McInnis. Add a dash of Tancredo, though, and Hickenlooper's lead increases: he's out front with 44%, with McInnis at 25%, and Tancredo -- outperforming McInnis -- at 26%. The story's much the same with Republican Dan Maes as the party's nominee. The poll shows that in a Hickenlooper-Maes matchup, Hickenlooper leads 50%-41%. Add Tancredo to the mix, though, and Hickenlooper's advantage increases: he gets 46% of the vote, while Maes and Tancredo are each at 24%.

The new SurveyUSA poll is the first from any pollster to include Tancredo in its match-ups. A SurveyUSA poll from June 17 showed McInnis topping Hickenlooper 47%-43% and Maes edging Hickenlooper 45%-44%. Even without the addition of Tancredo, then, the latest survey would be good news for the Hickenlooper camp.

The margin of error for the latest SurveyUSA poll is ±3.1 percentage points. The Republican primary is August 10.

Although the Republican National Committee has postponed its upcoming fundraising event in Beverly Hills, California, they are nevertheless making it clear that Andrew Breitbart -- who was supposed to co-headline the mid-August event with RNC Chairman Michael Steele -- is still invited to the rescheduled event.

"I don't know Andrew Breitbart's schedule for after Labor Day, but he certainly will be invited," RNC spokesman Doug Heye told the Washington Times.

As we reported last week, Breitbart and RNC Chairman Michael Steele were supposed to co-headline a fundraiser in mid-August.

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Rasmussen has new numbers from South Carolina's governor's race -- the first in over a month -- and they show Republican nominee Nikki Haley still out in front with a considerable lead over state Sen. Vincent Sheheen, the Democratic nominee.

Haley's up 49%-35% against Sheheen, which gives her a slightly larger lead than she had in Rasmussen's June 23 survey of the race, which put her ahead 52%-40%. Her current margin isn't quite as big as the one she enjoyed during her primary runoff campaign, when Rasmussen showed her up 21 points over Sheheen.

The TPM Poll Average of the race has Haley with 50.0% and Sheheen with 35.8%. The margin of error of the latest Rasmussen poll is ±4.5 percentage points.

You can't get away with everything in Sen. David Vitter's (R-LA) office.

Conservatives have been frothing over a memo, written by staffers at the Bureau of Citizenship and Immigration Services, outlining an approach to immigration reform. Appearing today on Fox News, Vitter joined in to pile on.

"This approach is completely out of bounds," Vitter said. "The fact that it's being discussed within the Administration should concern everybody. If somebody on my staff was developing that sort of approach for legislation, they'd be fired."

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SurveyUSA is out with new polling from the Colorado Senate race, and it looks like it'll be a close one no matter how the Democratic and Republican primaries turn out.

The survey shows Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet in tight races with both possible Republican candidates. He leads Jane Norton 46%-43%, and he's neck-and-neck with Ken Buck, 43%-43%. Meanwhile, Andrew Romanoff, who's polling just about even with Bennet in the Democratic primary, is also in two close contests. Norton leads Romanoff 45%-40%, and Romanoff is in a 44%-44% dead heat with Buck.

The TPM Poll Averages give the edge to the two Republicans. The Poll Average puts Norton up over Bennet 45.6%-42.5%, and it shows her up against Romanoff 44.4%-40.8%. The TPM Poll Average shows Ken Buck leading Bennet 46.1%-42.3%, and Buck ahead of Romanoff 47.0%-42.2%.

The margin of error of the latest SurveyUSA poll is ±3.1 percentage points. The primary is August 10.

Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT) has a new ad in his bid for the Republican nomination for Senate --  a race that he dramatically re-entered over the last two weeks, after he'd previously suspended his campaign in late May.

The announcer takes a barely-veiled shot at Linda McMahon, the former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO and self-financing frontrunner for the nomination: "Lest we forget, service defines us. Service protects us, it heals us, it inspires us. Service is selfless, it's compassionate, it's human, it's American. And the right to serve is earned -- it's not bought, it's not entered into on a whim. Lest we forget, service is what we ask of our leaders. And service is the yardstick by which we measure them."

As The Day of New London reports, the Simmons campaign is spending $250,000 on the ad.

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Tea party groups in Missouri, irate over Rep. Michele Bachmann's endorsement of Rep. Roy Blunt before tomorrow's Republican Senate primary, were planning a "major protest' against Blunt's campaign events over the weekend. Democrats and Blunt's main Republican primary opponent, Chuck Purgason, pushed for the protest as evidence Blunt was headed for trouble this fall in a general election matchup against Robin Carnahan (D).

But it didn't quite turn out that way.

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A new SurveyUSA poll of Colorado's GOP Senate primary puts tea party favorite Ken Buck ahead of Jane Norton, 50%-41%. SurveyUSA's previous poll of the race, from June 17, gave Buck a cushier 53%-37% advantage.

The GOP Senate primary in Colorado has been particularly gaffe-filled this year. Buck has called tea party birthers "dumbasses," and Norton has called for "a NASA budget that doesn't cater to making Muslims feel good," among other things.

The TPM Poll Average shows Buck with 44.5% and Norton with 37.3%. The margin of error of SurveyUSA's latest poll is ±4.1 percentage points. The primary is August 10.

The Republican National Committee has postponed (or perhaps canceled) its scheduled event in mid-August that was to feature none other than Andrew Breitbart.

As we reported last week, Breitbart and RNC Chairman Michael Steele were supposed to co-headline a fundraiser in Beverly Hills.

But now the event has been called off.

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