The new Susquehanna (R) poll of the special election for Pennsylvania's 12th District, formerly held by the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha, shows an initial lead for the Democratic candidate, but with very high undecideds.
The numbers: Mark Critz, a former Murtha chief of staff, 36%, businessman Tim Burns 31%.
The district is a swing seat, having voted for John McCain by a margin of less than one point in 2008 -- and it was the only district in the country to switch from John Kerry in 2004, who had a 51%-48% margin, to McCain in 2008. One factor that could help Democrats is that the special election will be held on May 18, the same day as the statewide primaries. There are more contested Democratic races than Republican ones that day, and this could potentially boost Democratic turnout for Critz.