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President Obama's approval rating has fallen below 50% in the Gallup poll for the first time, the organization has announced.

The full number will be released at 1 p.m. ET. (Late Update: The number has been posted, with 49% approval to 44% disapproval.)

As Gallup has previously noted, every president since World War II, except for John F. Kennedy, eventually went below 50%. The shortest time for such a fall belongs to Gerald Ford at three months, while the longest (except for Kennedy, and his tragically shortened administration) was Dwight Eisenhower at 63 months, the only president to last through a full first term above 50%.

Falling below 50% doesn't necessarily spell defeat for re-election. Obama's ten months will match the ten months for Ronald Reagan, who was of course re-elected in a landslide, and Bill Clinton only stayed above 50% for four months.

What will Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) do tomorrow? Perhaps Harry Reid knows.

"She's told Senator Reid," Sen. Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) told reporters after a Friday press conference. "You will have to ask Senator Reid."

Reid has zero margin for error tomorrow, and it's difficult to imagine he would move forward if he knew Lincoln planned to vote "no." A very telling sign in.

Of all the health care reform fence-sitters in the Democratic party, Lincoln is the only one that faces re-election next year, and her prospects don't look particularly good. As a result, pinning down her intentions has been particularly difficult. But in a coup, Congress Daily caught up with Lincoln yesterday, and she hinted that she may be on board herself.

"Without a doubt [Reid] has always stressed ... that you gotta believe in a little bit of the process," Lincoln said. "That's what we're here for. I mean, certainly knowing that not all 100 of us are going to agree on anything, you gotta be able to depend a little bit on the process. It gives you an opportunity to make the case and move things forward."

Lincoln stressed, of course, that she has to finish reading the bill before making up her mind, but said she'd announce her intentions publicly before the vote.

Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington has filed its complaint with the FEC over that mysterious $25,300 donation made to the US Treasury by Sen. Mary Landrieu's campaign -- framing the issue as one of transparency.

The Landrieu camp continues to refuse to reveal the reason for the donation, citing the need to protect the privacy of the original contributors. That's prompted CREW to suggest that the campaign may have feared a federal probe into the source of the money.

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In this unpredictable world we live in, it's nice to know there are some things you can still rely on -- the sun will rise in the east, winter will follow the fall and conservatives will start talking about immigration as an election year approaches.

To a nearly-empty room in the Rayburn building yesterday afternoon, the Republican members of the House Judiciary committee dusted off their well-worn rhetoric about the hordes of illegal aliens destroying the American way of life and partied like it was 2005, despite an economic downturn that has turned the immigration debate on its head.

"Americans are conditioned to believe that illegal workers are necessary," Rep. Steve King (R-IA) said.

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Organizing for America, the DNC's campaign arm set up to support President Obama's agenda, has a familiar target today: Sarah Palin.

Mitch Stewart, OFA's director, told supporters in an email just now they need help to raise "$500,000 in the next week to push back against Sarah Palin and her special interest allies."

His argument is that Palin's "lies" about health care are "widely covered by the media, then constantly echoed by right-wing attack groups and others who are trying to defeat reform." He uses her death panels meme as an example.

In his book "The Audacity to Win," Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said he was shocked that Palin was such a good fundraising driver for the team.

He writes that he looked at the online fundraising numbers a few hours after Palin made her big debut at the Republican National Convention going after Obama as his only experience being a community organizer.

"I couldn't believe what I saw," Plouffe wrote.

More from the book:

"We had taken in millions of dollars in the three hours since Palin had started speaking. We hadn't even asked for most of it; we had sent out just a single unplanned fund-raising email highlighting her attacks on community organizers, but it was just starting to hit people's in-boxes as I checked the numbers. So the big response from the last three hours meant people were merely venting via contribution. Her speech might have ginned up their base, but apparently it had sent ours into orbit."


He said he thought, "I hope she keeps this up. Sarah Palin has now become our best fund-raiser."

Sounds like that hasn't changed much.

Stewart's email from today after the jump.

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Doug Hampton's campaign to bring down the man who slept with his wife continues.

Hampton's latest blast at Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) came in a sit-down with ABC News's Nightline. In excerpts teased on the ABC News site, Hampton doubles down on his contention that the $96,000 he and his wife received from Ensign's parents, after the affair was discovered, was a severance package, not a gift as Ensign has claimed. A severance payment would have violated campaign-finance laws.

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Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) spoke to reporters last night about her intentions going forward on health care reform. I wasn't present, but a colleague passes along the audio. The short version is, Landrieu is still uncommitted on tomorrow's test vote on the motion to proceed, but she's looking forward to changing the bill (particularly the public option) on the floor, indicating she doesn't imagine the bill will falter at this stage.

"I have leverage now, I'm using it to the best of my ability, I'm going to use it on the Senate floor," Landrieu said. "I have people voting for me who are liberal Democrats, independents, conservative Democrats, and some moderate Republicans. I understand what my base is. My base is very broad."

And in that spirit, Landrieu says that even if her vote is there tomorrow, it won't necessarily be there down the line.

"The other thing that remains a concern to me is the shape of this public option," she says. "We have made a lot of progress taking it from a robust, government run [plan] to now something that is more mainstream, more narrow, more private sector oriented, I'd like to take it a step or two even further. So that will be debated on the floor. And if it's not done that way, maybe my vote's not there at the end."

The author of the book Muslim Mafia, which was based on documents taken by the author's son while he was posing as a Muslim intern at the Council on American Islamic Relations, has agreed to return all documents and recordings obtained during the time at CAIR, according to a draft consent order filed in court yesterday.

The draft order, agreed to by attorneys for CAIR as well as for Dave Gaubatz and his son Chris, was filed along with a joint motion asking the judge to enter the order.

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President Obama and NFL players Troy Polamalu, Drew Brees and DeMarcus Ware are starring in a public service announcement to air during three Thanksgiving Day football games.

The PSA, which promotes Play 60 and United We Serve, encourages kids to exercise and adults to volunteer in their community.

Watch Obama make a slow-motion catch (and try not to cry):

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