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The new Mason-Dixon poll of the Nevada Senate race shows a dead-even tie between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and his Republican opponent Sharron Angle.

The numbers: Reid 43%, Angle 43%, plus two additional conservative candidates -- Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian, and Independent American Party candidate Tim Fasano -- at 1% each. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. The previous Mason-Dixon poll from two weeks ago, which did not include Ashjian and Fasano, gave Reid an edge of 46%-44%.

The TPM Poll Average currently puts Reid ahead by 47.2%-44.9%.

From the internals, independents are going to Angle by a 20-point margin. "The independents have shifted to her by the biggest margin since the primary," Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon told the Las Vegas Review Journal, which commissioned the poll. "If she goes on to win this, maybe this is the first sign that at the end of the day Angle might nose it out."

Jon Stewart took a look at the House Republicans' "Pledge To America" last night, which the GOP said would be full of bold new governing ideas. "Who are these fresh-faced young guns and their bold new ideas?" Stewart asked after hearing some of the agenda. "Wait a minute, that's the same shit we heard before."

He continued:

Just to get this straight: Two years ago America broke up with you because you had badly mistreated her. And so you disappear, do some soul searching, get your head together. And you come back rapping on our door, hat in hand, and you say: 'Baby, I know you left me, but if we get back together, I pledge to you, I promise you, I will still try to fuck your sister. Every chance I get. It's who I am.'

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You've heard of the RINOs, right? The so-called Republicans In Name Only who some on the right want to replace with real conservatives? Perhaps you've heard of their oh-so-cleverly coined counterpart slur on the left, DINO. Turns out neither is as important to 2010 as some might believe. The real action, according to a new poll, is on the IINOS -- extraordinarily motivated independent voters who are, more often than not, driven to vote for the GOP.

The survey of 1,069 independent voters conducted by Pew last month found that "political independents now favor Republican candidates by about as large a margin as they backed Barack Obama in 2008 and congressional Democratic candidates four years ago." Independents will swing -- after all, they put Obama in the White House and Peolsi in the speaker's chair -- but this year's independent voter is swinging Republican.

Normally, independent voters don't get too excited about midterm elections. The off-year vote is usually left largely to partisans who battle for the winning margin in a relatively low turnout cycle. That appears not to be the case this year.

Pew finds that in 2010, "independent voters, who typically are not highly engaged by midterm elections, are now more likely than Democrats to say they are giving a lot of thought to this one." And "the relatively high level of independent engagement this year has come among those who plan to vote Republican."

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Dems: We'll Run On Our Record The Hill reports: "Congressional Democrats on Thursday declared they would run on their legislative record this fall, rejecting former President Clinton's advice to counter a new Republican policy agenda with one of their own...House and Senate Democratic leaders on Thursday ridiculed the Republicans' 'Pledge to America,' a manifesto designed as a sequel to the 'Contract With America' that helped the GOP win control of Congress in 1994. Democrats dubbed the document a 'pledge to special interests' and said they have no plans to release their own governing white paper."

Obama's Day Ahead President Obama will spend the day in New York City. He will meet at 11:15 a.m. ET with President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan, and will meet at 12:15 p.m. ET with President Juan Manuel Santos Calderón of Colombia. He will attend a 1 p.m. ET working luncheon with ASEAN leaders. He will attend a 3:15 p.m. ET Ministerial Meeting on Sudan. He will meet at 5 p.m. ET with President Roza Otunbayeva of Kyrgyzstan. He will depart from New York at 6:55 p.m. ET, arrive at 7:45 p.m. ET at Andrews Air Force Base, and arrive back at the White House at 8 p.m. ET.

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Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) is continuing his plan to seemingly repeat Sen. Kay Hagan's (D-NC) successful ad blitz that won her the 2008 election over Elizabeth Dole. Using the same two actors Hagan did in her old-men-rocking-on-a-porch spots, Burr is turning their elderly frustration against the Democratic nominee, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, this year.

The new ad focuses on the standard GOP bogeymen of the cycle -- rising deficits, spending and cap-and-trade.

"Six!" one old man yells from his rocking chair.

"Nope, a little before five," the other deapans from his rocking chair.

The two then begin to banter about the "six trillion dollars in new government spending" the pair say Marshall wants to bring to Washington.

The TPM Poll Average shows Burr leading Marshall 53.3-35.4.

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You know that Christine O'Donnell is pro-life. But one episode that hasn't gotten much attention is her work on an end-of-life case, reminiscent of Terry Schiavo's, in 2008.

O'Donnell, the new Republican Senate candidate from Delaware, cites her pro bono public relations work on the case as the reason she was in dire financial straits during her Senate campaign against Joe Biden that year. Her straits were so dire, in fact, she sold her home to her boyfriend and campaign lawyer a month before it was to be auctioned off to pay her mortgage.

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With all the talk about how Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) may be in trouble this year, it's worth taking a moment out to consider why? Is it the health care bill? The bailouts? Or something else? In truth, a major reason really goes back to that great political saying: It's the economy, stupid -- and more precisely, it's unemployment.

Before the financial crisis and the recession, Nevada had a soaring economy, built in part on two pillars -- real estate and tourism, both of which have suffered in the recession. In fact, the state has the highest foreclosure rate int he nation. And the state's unemployment rate has become the worst in the country, too. In the latest figures, it was 14.4% in August, up slightly from 14.3% in July.

Reid has said that the economy is not his fault. For example, in a recent ABC News interview he defended his record -- and turned the issue back on Angle. "You know that I had nothing to do with the massive foreclosures here. You know that I had nothing to do with these unemployment figures," he said. "In fact, I've worked hard to change them. My job is to create jobs. My opponent says that is not her job to create jobs. And I think that is really wrong. I think it is my job to create jobs and I've done my best. Is there more that needs to take place? Of course, there is."

Team Angle has jumped all over the issue. More often than not, the campaign's daily e-mails seize on unemployment and try to batter Reid with the state's poor economy. For example, the message from this past Monday declared: "Senator Reid has brushed aside the 200,000 Nevadans out of work and the worst jobless rate in the nation by saying that he has nothing to do with the unemployment in his state. Instead, Reid has set his priorities on a different goal this week - passing amnesty as an attachment to the defense bill."

And of course, the subject has dominated advertising in the race.

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The guy who oversaw the Obama administration's bailout of the auto industry for seven months doesn't think he'll ever see the day when a car company can survive on selling electric cars alone.

"Probably not in my lifetime," Steve Rattner, Obama's former car czar, told TPM. "Electric cars are going to be a very, very important part of our future but we should not assume, hey, will be an important part of the car companies' profits."

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Tea party backed Republican candidates -- indeed most Republican candidates -- base their campaigns largely on opposition to President Obama's agenda, and an imprecise pledge to reduce the federal deficit. Perhaps no single issue encapsulates that pledge better than the Democrats' stimulus bill -- one of the President's signature initiatives that is, by design, a big deficit booster. Government can't create jobs, they say, the stimulus wasted tax payer dollars, and simply bloated the federal government.

Scratch under the surface a bit, though, and these candidates' opposition to government spending isn't very deep at all -- particularly when they benefit directly.

Ron Johnson, who claims "government doesn't create jobs," and who's hoping to unseat Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), has perhaps the longest record of benefiting from government largesse.

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