TPM News

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is planning to send the health care reform bill to the House floor today, according to The Hill.

With the bill introduced today, the earliest a vote could come is Thursday, because Pelosi has promised 72 hours for the public and Congressmen to review the legislation.

Pelosi said last week that she expects a vote before Veterans Day at the latest.

Late update: Rules Committee spokesman Vince Morris told reporters today that the vote timing has not been announced, but to "stay tuned for something later in the week."

The new Siena poll of the NY-23 race gives Conservative Doug Hoffman a lead over Democrat Bill Owens -- but only a narrow one.

The numbers: Hoffman 41%, Owens 36%, and Republican Dede Scozzafava -- who dropped out of the race and endorsed the Democrat Owens, but is still on the ballot -- at 6%, with a whopping 18% undecided. In the previous poll from two days ago, before the whole fiasco mentioned previously, Owens had 36%, Hoffman 35%, Scozzafava 20%, and only 9% were undecided.

This is in contrast to last night's Public Policy Polling (D) survey, which gave Hoffman a double-digit lead. When two reputable pollsters differ, the tie should probably go to the local one, Siena, in terms of which to put greater faith in -- but in any case we'll find out the truth tomorrow night, when people actually vote.

From the pollster's analysis: "With nearly one in five voters undecided the day before Election Day and voters still trying to comprehend the dramatic withdrawal of Scozzafava, and her subsequent endorsement of Owens, this is still a wide open race. The two candidates and campaigns are both in a sprint to try and convince these undecided voters to support them. Which ever campaign succeeds in convincing the undecided voters and then getting them to the polls tomorrow, will likely be looking at a victory tomorrow night."

Sarah Palin is urging Virginia voters to turn out tomorrow and "vote for Sarah's principles" "vote to share our principles" in a new robocall that began rolling out across the state this weekend. The calls are paid for by a group run by former Christian Coalition director Ralph Reed, and do not mention the name of any candidate, including GOP gubernatorial nominee Bob McDonnell.

More from the call script, first reported this morning by CNN's Peter Hamby:

"The eyes of America will be on Virginia and make no mistake about it, every vote counts. So don't take anything for granted, vote your values on Tuesday, and urge your friends and family to vote, too."

Read More →

Hillary: U.S. Opposes Israeli Settlements Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is meeting today with several Arab foreign ministers, in an effort to restart peace talks between the Israelis and Palestinians. Clinton reiterated the administration's opposition to continued Israeli settlements: "Successive American administrations of both parties have opposed Israel's settlement policy. That is absolutely a fact, and the Obama administration's position on settlements is clear, unequivocal and it has not changed."

Obama's Day Ahead President Obama will have his daily briefing at 10 a.m. Et. He will meet at 11:10 a.m. ET with the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board. He will meet at 2 p.m. ET with Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt. He will meet at 3 p.m. ET with senior advisers.

Read More →

The new Quinnipiac poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial races gives Republican nominee Chris Christie a slim lead over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine -- a late Christie surge, after Quinnipiac last poll had put Corzine ahead.

The numbers: Christie 42%, Corzine 40%, and independent Chris Daggett 12%, with a ±2.5% margin of error. In the previous poll from last week, Corzine had 43%, Christie 38%, and Daggett 13%.

The pollster's analysis says that as of right now, Daggett is taking more votes away from Corzine than he is from Christie: "Daggett is the key to an incredibly close New Jersey election."

The new survey of the New Jersey gubernatorial race from Public Policy Polling (D) gives Republican nominee Chris Christie a six-point leader over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine.

The numbers: Christie 47%, Corzine 41%, and independent Chris Daggett 11%, with a ±3.1% margin of error. The previous poll from last week gave Christie a narrower lead of 42%-38%-13%.

From the pollster's analysis: "If Christie does indeed end up as the winner it will be an indication that you can only be so unpopular as an elected official and still hope to get reelected. 57% of voters in the state have an unfavorable opinion of Corzine while only 34% view him positively. Christie isn't exactly Mr. Popularity, as only 43% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him to 42% negative, but compared to Corzine those numbers look pretty good."

Late Update: Another poll from today, Monmouth poll, gives Christie an edge of 43%-42%, plus Daggett with 8%, with a ±3% margin of error. The previous poll from two weeks ago had the race tied at 39%-39%-14%.

The new survey of the NY-23 special election from Public Policy Polling (D) finds Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman with a solid lead over Democrat Bill Owens, in a race that has seen a topsy-turvy weekend as moderate GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava dropped out and endorsed Owens.

The numbers: Hoffman 51%, Owens 34%, and Scozzafava (whose name remains on the ballot) 13%, with a ±2.3% margin of error. In a strict two-way matchup, Hoffman leads Owens by 54%-38%.

One caveat: Special elections are notoriously hard to poll -- especially a race as crazy as this one -- and this survey does have some inconsistencies from others. For example, only 39% of its likely voter pool approves of President Obama, with 52% disapproving. By contrast, the Siena poll gave Obama a favorable rating of 59%-37%. (True, "approval" and "favorable" are two different questions, but even then they shouldn't have answers that are this different.)

So which numbers should be believed? The simple answer is that we don't know. Either one of them could be right, or both could be wrong. We'll find out soon enough, on Tuesday night.

Wednesday marks the anniversary of President Barack Obama's historic election, and White House staffers, campaign volunteers and supporters are reliving the moment.

Most prominent in the coming week is Tuesday's HBO debut of the "By the People" documentary, a retelling of the long campaign.

Also happening this week are reunions put together by the volunteers still active in Organizing for America, the next generation of the Obama campaign.

On a sign-up sheet for local reunion events, OFA tells supporters:

"One year ago, President-Elect Obama told us that the election victory was only the beginning of the change we all sought -- and today, through Organizing for America, we're fighting just as hard to make health insurance reform a reality, this year. But while we seek to live up to the President's words, we're planning to gather together to reconnect, celebrate, and remember that moment, last year, when we won a historic victory.

So this week, we're holding reunion events across the country for folks who were involved in the campaign. Can you attend one near you?"

Read More →

The White House issued the following remarks that President Obama made at two rallies today for New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D). The first event was at the Susquehanna Bank Center in Camden, New Jersey. The second was as the Prudential Center in Newark. Here's the full text of both:

Read More →

Former Alaska Governor, best-selling author and NY-23 meddler Sarah Palin is now wading into the New Jersey gubernatorial race. In a note posted on Facebook earlier today, Palin took issue with Independent candidate Chris Daggett's assertion that she tried to pressure him to drop out of the New Jersey race -- and then implied that he should.

Read More →

TPMLivewire