TPM News

The new Rasmussen poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race provides yet another data point that Democrat Joe Sestak is closing the gap against Republican Pat Toomey, with Toomey's lead shrinking from ten points down to just four.

The numbers: Toomey 48%, Sestak 44%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous poll from less than two weeks ago, Toomey led by a much stronger 49%-39%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 46.1%-44.4%, with Sestak's blue line rapidly approaching Toomey's red one.

Read More →

The Harry Reid campaign has a new ad in the Nevada Senate race, further seeking to hammer home their theme that Republican Sharron Angle is extreme and would further hurt the economy. In this one, business leaders from throughout the state speak against Angle, and in support of Reid.

The various business leaders declare: "Electing Sharron Angle would cost thousands of jobs"; "She will be the knockout punch for Nevada's economy"; "Sharron Angle supports tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas. That's just crazy"; and most notably: "Let's start with the fact that I'm a Republican. There is nobody that's done more for this state," and another saying, "We need the Majority Leader."

The announcer quotes from an editorial by Angle's home newspaper, the Reno Gazette-Journal "Replacing Senator Reid with Sharron would be a disaster."

The TPM Poll Average gives Angle a lead of 48.5%-47.4%.

Read More →

Fox News, as part of their extensive coverage of the Juan Williams controversy, today lamented that "so much of this debate has excluded the opinion of the Muslim community" before turning to a Muslim --who publicly accuses 80 percent of American mosques of being radical and anti-American -- to respond.

M. Zuhdi Jasser, a Muslim physician who advocates the de-politicization of Islam, said he wasn't offended by Williams' remarks that he gets nervous whenever he sees Muslims on a plane. NPR fired Williams for the comment and Fox News immediately hired him to a $2 million contract, touching off a debate over whether what Williams said is bigoted and therefore a fireable offense.

Read More →

1||Updated 3:22 p.m. ET November 1

The TPM Poll Average for the Nevada Senate race shows Republican Sharron Angle leading Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV). Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH||TPM PollTracker&&

2||The TPM Poll Average for the Pennsylvania Senate race shows Republican Pat Toomey leading Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA). Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH||TPM PollTracker&&

3||The TPM Poll Average for the Kentucky Senate race shows Republican Rand Paul leading Democrat Jack Conway. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH||TPM PollTracker&&

4||The TPM Poll Average for the West Virginia Senate race shows Gov. Joe Manchin (D-WV) leading Republican John Raese. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH||TPM PollTracker&&

5||The TPM Poll Average for the Washington Senate race shows Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) leading Republican Dino Rossi. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH||TPM PollTracker&&

6||The TPM Poll Average for the Illinois Senate race shows Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) leading Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

7||The TPM Poll Average for the Colorado Senate race shows Republican Ken Buck leading Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO). Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

8||The TPM Poll Average for the California Senate race shows Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) leading Republican Carly Fiorina. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

9||The TPM Poll Average for the Wisconsin Senate race shows Republican Ron Johnson leading Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI). Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH||TPM PollTracker&&

10||The TPM Poll Average for the Alaska Senate race shows Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) leading Republican Joe Miller and Democrat Scott McAdams. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

11||The TPM Poll Average for the Connecticut Senate race shows Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) leading Republican Linda McMahon. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH||TPM PollTracker&&

12||The TPM Poll Average for the Missouri Senate race shows Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) leading Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D). Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

13||The TPM Poll Average for the Delaware Senate race shows Democrat Chris Coons leading Republican Christine O'Donnell. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

14||The TPM Poll Average for the Florida Senate race shows Republican Marco Rubio leading Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL). Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH||TPM PollTracker&&

15||The TPM Poll Average for the Ohio Senate race shows Republican Rob Portman leading Lieutenant Gov. Lee Fisher (D-OH). Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

16||The TPM Poll Average for the North Carolina Senate race shows Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) leading North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D). Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH||TPM PollTracker&&

17||The TPM Poll Average for the New York Senate race shows Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) leading Republican Joseph DioGuardi. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH||TPM PollTracker&&

18||The TPM Poll Average for the Louisiana Senate race shows Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) leading Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA). Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH||TPM PollTracker&&

19||The TPM Poll Average for the California gubernatorial race shows California Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) leading Republican Meg Whitman. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

20||The TPM Poll Average for the Florida gubernatorial race shows Democrat Alex Sink leading Republican Rick Scott. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

21||The TPM Poll Average for the Ohio gubernatorial race shows Republican John Kasich leading Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH). Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

22||The TPM Poll Average for the New York gubernatorial race shows New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) leading Republican Carl Paladino. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

23||The TPM Poll Average for the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race shows Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) leading Democrat Dan Onorato. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

24||The TPM Poll Average for the Maine gubernatorial race shows Republican Paul LePage leading independent Eliot Cutler and Democrat Libby Mitchell. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

25||The TPM Poll Average for the South Carolina gubernatorial race shows Republican Nikki Haley leading Democrat Vincent Sheheen. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

26||The TPM Poll Average for the Connecticut gubernatorial race shows Democrat Dan Malloy leading Republican Thomas Foley. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

27||The TPM Poll Average for the Georgia gubernatorial race shows Republican Nathan Deal leading Democrat Roy Barnes. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

28||The TPM Poll Average for the Illinois gubernatorial race shows Republican Bill Brady leading Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL). Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

29||The TPM Poll Average for the Massachusetts gubernatorial race shows Gov. Deval Patrick (D-MA) leading Republican Charles D. Baker, Jr. and independent Tim Cahill. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

30||The TPM Poll Average for the Maryland gubernatorial race shows Gov. Martin O'Malley (D-MD) leading Republican Robert Ehrlich. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

31|| The TPM Poll Average for the New Mexico gubernatorial race shows Republican Susana Martinez leading Lieutenant Gov. Diane Denish (D-NM). Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH||TPM PollTracker&&

32|| The TPM Poll Average for the Wisconsin gubernatorial race shows Republican Scott Walker leading Democrat Tom Barrett. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

33||The TPM Poll Average for the Minnesota gubernatorial race shows Democrat Mark Dayton leading Republican Tom Emmer and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

34||The TPM Poll Average for the Rhode Island gubernatorial race shows Independent Lincoln Chafee leading Republican John Robitaille and Democrat Frank Caprio. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

35||The TPM Poll Average for the Texas gubernatorial race shows Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX) leading Democrat Bill White. Full coverage of the race here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

36||The TPM Poll Average for President Barack Obama's national job approval shows 49.7% disapproval and 45.4% approval. Full coverage of President Obama here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

37||The TPM Poll Average for the U.S. Congressional generic ballot shows Republicans leading Democrats 49.6%-42.7%.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

38||The TPM Poll Average for national health care reform shows 49.0% opposition and 39.4% support. Full coverage of the health care debate here.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL DATA/INTERACTIVE GRAPH ||TPM PollTracker&&

In 2010, the debate over gay rights, while a major issue for many groups, has not played a central role in the political debate surrounding most midterm elections. This is partially due to the economy taking center stage, and partially due to the fact that American society is just kind of over the whole thing, and is more tolerant of the LGBT community than ever before.

Yet on the campaign trail, the divisions over Don't Ask Don't Tell and other gay rights causes can still run very deep between the two parties -- creating a clear distinction that popped up last night in a debate between the two nominees running for Senate in North Carolina.

The exchange between Sen. Richard Burr (R) and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) isn't likely to change the election's outcome -- polls show Burr with a big lead, and most observers expect him to cruise to reelection this fall.

But the debate offered one of the clearest views of the differences between Republicans and Democrats over LGBT rights found this year. Marshall called DADT "governmental discrimination," equal to "judging people by the color of their hair, the color of their eyes, or the color of their skin, or other factors they have no control over."

Burr said he had no idea whether homosexuality is a choice or biological and bristled at the idea that the battle for racial Civil Rights is equatable to granting LGBT rights.

Read More →

This isn't running on TV, at least not yet. But the below web video, produced by the Sean Bielat (R) campaign is making the rounds anyhow.

You'll see why when you watch it. Bielat's running against Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA). Frank chairs the House Financial Services committee and is the most famous openly gay member of Congress. Bielat combines those two themes in the video to lay the responsibility for the financial crisis at Frank's feet... while portraying him as a hip-swerving disco queen in a rumpled suit.

Read More →

Stephen Broden, a Republican running for Congress in Texas' 30th District, said he would not rule out a violent overthrow of the government if the midterm elections don't cause a change in government, saying that "our nation was founded on violence" so "the option is on the table."

Read More →

Is it possible that for nearly 20 years, one of the two administrative judges presiding over investor complaints at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has followed through on a secret vow to rule on the side of financial firms and professionals against individual investors?

On his way out the door last month, retiring judge George Painter levied that very charge against his now-former colleague, Bruce Levine. "On Judge Levine's first week on the job, nearly twenty years ago, he came into my office and stated that he had promised Wendy Gramm, then Chairwoman of the Commission, that we would never rule in a complainant's favor," Painter wrote in an order. "A review of his rulings will confirm that he fulfilled his vow."

(Wendy Gramm, a Republican appointee, is the wife of former Senator, and financial deregulator, Phil Gramm, neither of whom would comment for this story.)

Read More →

Nevada Republican Senate nominee Sharron Angle has had another fun question-dodging encounter with the media. This time, a reporter for the local Fox affiliate in Las Vegas says, Angle shushed him as he tried asking questions.

In the video, the reporter is asking questions to Angle as she's walking out of an event. A curt "sshhh" can be heard. The person doing so cannot be directly seen because of the camera angle at that moment, but the reporter identified it as coming from Angle. "Well I have to get on," Angle is then shown saying. "But I just want to ask you to get out the vote. Thank you."

Angle then exited the room, and someone who appears to be a policeman blocked the door and said "We're stopping this," so that the reporter could not follow Angle.

Read More →

Earlier this week, the Harris County (Texas) Democratic Party forwarded 14 complaints about poll watchers during early voting in the county, including allegations of voter intimidation, to the Harris County Clerk. But the County Clerk's office, run by a Republican, says they looked into the allegations and found nothing wrong.

"We investigated it, we talked to everybody there at the different locations, and they basically said it didn't happen," said Hector DeLeon, a spokesman for the County Clerk.

He said the office takes each allegation seriously. But their investigations consisted solely of calling up the polling locations where the incidents allegedly occurred to ask poll workers if there was anything wrong.

Read More →

LiveWire