Jones: The Surge is Working, Let’s Draw Down

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In this morning’s testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee, the independent commission on Iraqi security forces led by retired General James Jones expressed a great deal of confidence in the Iraqi Army’s growing combat capabilities and far less on those of the local police and National Police units.

But Jones wanted to make a broader point as well, one that doesn’t directly relate to the state of the Iraqi security forces. Citing the “tactical successes” of the surge, Jones said, it’s possible to start moving toward reduced combat missions for U.S. forces in 2008.

It’s somewhat beyond the commission’s purview, which had to do only with the conditions of the Iraqi military and police. But Jones said the “observable progress” of the Iraqi Army led to “some options” for U.S. forces in Iraq by early 2008, especially due to the (dubious) reduction in violence as the result of the surge. Specifically, the U.S. should — however slowly — begin to transition into a “strategic overwatch” role, protecting Iraqi borders and major infrastructure. Even though the Iraqi police face tremendous difficulties and the army won’t be ready to act independently for at least a year, the U.S.’s “force footprint should be justified to represent an expeditionary capability and to combat the permanent-force image of an occupying power,” Jones testified.

Jones didn’t explicitly recommend troop reductions, which he left to the commanders on the ground when pressed by senators. Nor did he endorse setting a date for withdrawal. But Jones strongly suggested that if the surge is indeed working, the logical follow-through is to dial back the U.S. combat mission, rather than keeping the increased pace of combat operations up indefinitely. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) pointed out that Jones’ testimony fit with the Iraq Study Group’s recommendation last year to reduce the U.S. combat footprint.

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