Obamacare could lead to lower premiums in the state of New York, according to a new study by Deloitte prepared for the New York Health Benefit Exchange.
The analysis found that the Affordable Care Act, via its subsidies and Medicaid expansion, will cut the uninsurance rate by about half (43.1 percent to 53.6 percent) and lower average morbidity by 13.9 percent.
The analysis predicted that a less sick population could improve the insurance risk pool and lead to lower premiums as insurers estimate that their payouts per patient would drop.
“There are several reasons that the New York non-group cost could decrease. Excluding Healthy New York, current non-group premiums are extremely high,” the Deloitte study found. “These high premiums are a result of the age of this block of business, guaranteed issue, pure community rated market, no income- related subsidies, and the small size of this market.”
“The expected increase in the size of the non-group market post-ACA could introduce a much more typical distribution of health care needs to this market, thus leading to significantly lower premiums.”
[h/t Wonkblog’s Sarah Kliff]
