A survey from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling released on Thursday provided further proof that South Dakota will likely be one of the Republican Party’s best opportunities to pick up a Senate seat next year.
The poll showed incumbent Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) facing a closely divided South Dakota electorate: 44 percent approve of his job performance, while 45 percent disapprove. Johnson, who defeated Sen. John Thune (R) by a razor-thin margin in 2002 and has never lost a statewide race, also lagged behind two potential GOP challengers in hypothetical matchups of the 2014 Senate race. Johnson said that he would make make a decision on his re-election plans later this year.
Former Gov. Mike Rounds (R), who announced in November that he would launch a Senate bid next year, claimed a comfortable lead over Johnson 52 percent to 41 percent. The poll indicated that Rounds has not seen a dip in popularity since he left office in 2011, with 51 percent of South Dakota voters saying they have a favorable opinion of him and 34 percent saying they have an unfavorable opinion.
Johnson also trailed Rep. Kristi Noem (R-SD) by four points. Noem defeated former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD) in 2010 and is viewed favorably by 49 percent of voters in the state. Forty-two percent said they have an unfavorable opinion of Noem.
If Johnson opts to retire, Herseth Sandlin probably represents the best hope for Democrats to retain Johnson’s seat. In hypothetical matchups tested by PPP, she trailed Rounds by only four points and led Noem by one. Herseth Sandlin, who served in the House from 2004 until 2011, is also every bit as popular as Rounds and more popular than Noem. Fifty-two percent have a favorable opinion of Herseth Sandlin, while 37 percent have an unfavorable opinion.
