New Public Policy Polling (D) surveys ahead of the Republican primaries in Alabama and Mississippi on Tuesday shows the race a dead in both states between former Massachuestts Gov. Mitt Romney, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. Both polls were conducted on Saturday and Sunday.
In Alabama, where there are 50 delegates at stake of the 1,144 needed to win the GOP nomination, Romney gets 31 percent, Gingrich 30 and Santorum sees 29. In the battle for Mississippi’s 40 delegates there is a little more differentiation, with Gingrich at 33 percent, Romney 31 and Santorum 27. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) gathers support in the single digits in both states. “About all we know for sure about Tuesday’s primaries is that Ron Paul will finish last in them,” said Dean Debnam, President of PPP in a release. “Beyond that it’s plausible that any of the candidates could finish between first and third in both Alabama and Mississippi.” From their analysis:
The reason Romney has a chance to win despite being less popular in both states is the split in the conservative vote. In Mississippi 44% of voters describe themselves as ‘very conservative’ and Romney’s getting only 26% with them. But he’s still in the mix because Gingrich leads Santorum only 35-32 with them. In Alabama where 45% of voters identify as ‘very conservative,’ Romney’s at just 24%. But again he remains competitve overall because his opponents are so tightly packed with those voters, with Santorum at 37% and Gingrich at 31%.
It’s not really clear who, if anyone, has the momentum in these states. In Mississippi folks who’ve decided in the last few days go for Gingrich over Santorum 37-29 with Romney at only 15%. But in Alabama the late deciders go 38-29 for Romney over Santorum with Gingrich at 23%.
