Poll: Tammy Baldwin Up 4 Points In Wisconsin Senate Race PublishedOctober 3, 2012, 1:41 PM EDT Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin continues to lead Republican former Gov. Tommy Thompson in the Wisconsin Senate race. Baldwin leads 48 percent to 44 percent, in a poll released Wednesday by Marquette Law School. The survey of 894 likely voters was conducted Sept. 27-30, and has a 3.3 percent margin of error. The PollTracker Average shows Baldwin leading, 50.8 percent to 41.2 percent.