Sometimes a story catches fire and just a really straightforward look at the fine print shows there’s really nothing to it. One of the recent examples has to do with Sen. John Fetterman and the increasingly vocal complaints that he’s gone rogue from his progressive roots and is likely to one day become or is possibly already on his way to becoming the next Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema. There’s actually a whole conversation on social media about how we’ll soon see him coming out against getting rid of or abolishing the filibuster.
Like David, I’m still not clear that we have a satisfying explanation of just why the last week on Capitol Hill happened. For the moment I’m just glad it happened. Ukraine will now get a major infusion of military aid which should at least stabilize the Ukrainian war effort. But even if we don’t really know why Mike Johnson did what he did, there are some other takeaways worth noting.
Let me return to add a few more thoughts on what happened between Israel and Iran. Iran launched a massive fusillade of drones and missiles, but virtually none of them got through. A few days later Israel retaliated with a much smaller volley, which was apparently just a handful of drones that were launched from aircraft just outside of Iranian airspace. They were targeted at Isfahan, which is where Iran’s nuclear facilities are located, but were aimed apparently at a drone factory there. Iran not only hasn’t responded but has mostly pretended that it didn’t even happen, at least for domestic audiences. So Israel responded but at least for now they seem to have been able to do so and have the Iranians call things even.
I hope you get a chance to read Josh Kovensky’s trial report from yesterday. He gets at a really good point which is that Trump’s attack on the very concept of the jury system is of a piece with the central conceit of Trumpism — that civic space, the idea that work on behalf of the republic which is not strictly a partisan exercise, is an impossibility. That is narrowly advantageous for Trump since he’s on trial and wants to discredit the process that could put him behind bars. But it’s not a momentary opportunism. It’s a premise, an attack on small-r republican government, which is at the center of his movement.
I’ve been having an ongoing exchange with a TPM Reader and friend about the simple question: Why is Mike Johnson doing this? Like YOLO Johnson, sure. But why? He’s been kind of dragging along for six months and yeah, it’s kind of embarrassing, but it’s always been embarrassing. Why the “Let’s Be Legends” vibe now?
My friend asked if I thought it might be some sudden shift in the intelligence about the situation in Ukraine. Maybe, I said. But that didn’t seem right to me. Far more likely it was that the parliamentary dynamics simply hit a breaking point, perhaps spurred on by the sudden pressure to move Israel aid. If you’ve got one foot on the dock and another on the ship and the ship starts to pull off you have to make a choice. Stay or go. Equivocate and you fall in the water.
But this article from Politico suggests that new intelligence actually did play a key role.
12:57 a.m.: It’s hard to know the precise significance of Israel’s retaliatory strike or how Iran might respond. So far Iran seems to be downplaying the attack internally, basically saying it was no big deal and showing video of Isfahan as if nothing was going on. And the attack does seem to have been fairly limited. But what jumps out is that the Israeli drones or at least most of them were able to hit deep within Iran without much problem. I assume that was the message of the strike: that Israel can strike deep within Iran basically at will, unlike Iran’s experience having virtually every one of its missiles and drones shot down. The Israeli target was a drone facility Isfahan. But that’s also where Iran’s nuclear facilities are, which were not targeted. As best I can tell, that’s the message: our missiles and drones get through.
10:55 p.m.: Unclear what’s happening yet. But there is clearly a major Israeli retaliation underway over the skies in Iran. Flights are being diverted. Airspace closed. Here’s the list I’m watching on Twitter if you’re still on Twitter. CNN says the attack is on non-nuclear targets. Presumably they are getting that directly from the Israelis or what the Israelis told the Americans. Apparently the Israelis gave the U.S. a significant heads up that this was coming.
A new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! This week, Kate and Josh discuss the beginning of the New York hush money trial, arguments at the Supreme Court that could affect a different Trump trial and Mike Johnson’s newest woes.
You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.
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NEW YORK — Manhattan prosecutors teed up a key witness in Trump’s criminal trial on Tuesday to delve into the hush-money allegations that form the center of their case: concealed, and allegedly covered-up, payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels.
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