A new survey from Public Policy Polling (D) shows former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with a small four point lead in the state’s Repubican primary set for May 8th. Romney gets 34 percent, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum gets 30, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich 17 and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) 11. “Gingrich really playing spoiler in NC,” PPP pollster Tom Jensen tweeted. “Without him Santorum would lead Romney 42-38 there, 8 pt shift.”
But as it is, PPP’s numbers show that Romney is now locking down key voting blocs in the GOP base — very conservative Republicans. From their analysis:
Romney’s making serious in roads with the groups that have provided Santorum’s base of support. For instance with Tea Party voters what was a 10 point lead for Santorum a couple weeks ago is only 2 points at 32-30. There’s been a similar shift with Evangelicals, among whom Santorum’s once 10 point lead is also down to 2 points at 34-32. Meanwhile Romney’s winning by a whooping 41-9 spread with moderate voters and has his requisite strong support with seniors at 46-23.
There’s reason to believe Romney could end up taking North Carolina by a wider margin than his 4 point lead on this poll. 58% of his supporters are strongly committed to voting for him, compared to only 42% of Santorum’s who say the same thing. When you look at the race among only voters whose minds are totally made up Romney’s lead expands to 18 points at 47-29. If Santorum has a bad night on April 24th that makes his supporters further question the viability of his candidacy Romney could see his advantage in North Carolina grow some more.
