Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is up in a University of Iowa survey of the state, showing him with nearly 30 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers ahead of the January 3rd vote. Former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney is second with 20.3 percent, and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) is the only other candidate in double digits with 10.7 percent.
While polls have been showing a Gingrich lead in the first caucus state for weeks now, University of Iowa polling advisor and associate professor Frederick Boehmke said their numbers actually show things getting closer as voting approaches:
“Gingrich’s 29.8 percent share among likely GOP caucus-goers still gives him a nine-point lead over Romney, but our results show that his support may be starting to slide as it has with previous frontrunners,” Boehmke says. “The gap has closed to 5.1 percentage points even though Romney’s support has changed very little.”
Gingrich’s lead over Romney is smaller among “very likely” caucus-goers, with 29.0 percent stating they would vote for him if the caucuses were held today compared to 22.6 percent who identified Romney as their preferred candidate. This gap widened among those “somewhat likely” to attend the caucuses, with 31.2 percent supporting Gingrich and 16 percent supporting Romney if the caucuses were held today. Among “very likely” caucus-goers, Bachmann placed third with 11.2 percent of respondents.
