Gallup: National GOP Leader After NH Could Run the Table

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In a new analysis out Thursday morning, Gallup argues that whoever becomes the leader in the Republican race nationally after the New Hampshire primary vote on Tuesday stands a very good shot of taking the nomination. The Gallup numbers seem to point out the traditional line on the GOP process — that Republicans fall in line when one candidate gets momentum. But Gallup also said that 2012 has been an atypical cycle on the GOP side.

The 2012 contest has proven to be the most volatile GOP contest to date, with four candidates — Romney, Gingrich, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain — leading or tied for the lead at one point or another….In most Republican nomination contests, including 1988, 1992, 1996, and 2000, one candidate led throughout the nomination campaign. In 1976 and 1980, Ford and Reagan, respectively, led for the vast majority of those campaigns. Prior to this year, the 2008 nomination contest showed the most movement, with three different candidates leading at some point in the campaign

“With their strong showings in Iowa, Romney and Santorum can each expect his national poll numbers to rise in the coming days,” Gallup wrote. “However, history suggests the leader after New Hampshire may be in a better position to win the nomination. Romney is favored to win the New Hampshire primary, but voters there could reassess their choices after the Iowa results and Bachmann’s departure from the campaign.”

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