Constitutional Scholar: HCR Outcome ‘Impossible’ To Predict

Erwin Chemerinsky, a dean of UC Irvine School of Law, weighed in after the final Supreme Court oral arguments Wednesday on the health care reform law.

He wrote in an email to TPM:

I think that it is impossible from the oral arguments to predict what the Court will do. It seems that the Court is not likely to dismiss on jurisdictional grounds and not likely to strike down the whole statute. But as to the constitutionality of the individual mandate, Justice Kennedy asked hard questions of both sides and it is impossible to predict his vote based on these questions. I have predicted from the outset that the Court would uphold the individual mandate and I continue to believe this will be the result.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Sahil Kapur is TPM's senior congressional reporter and Supreme Court correspondent. His articles have been published in the Huffington Post, The Guardian and The New Republic. Email him at sahil@talkingpointsmemo.com and follow him on Twitter at @sahilkapur.
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