Democrats believe they have caught Republicans in an impossible bind just in time for the November election: Disavowing Trump could cost Republicans with their base, but embracing him is sure to alienate every one else.
That position has down-ballot Republicans reeling and Democrats eying more gains in the House of Representatives.
House observers caution that taking back the House remains a steep climb for Democrats that isn’t likely unless Trump continues his downward spiral, but most recognize the climate has shifted.
“I don’t have a good handle yet on how far the battlefield has shifted,” said David Wasserman, a House race analyst for the Cook Political Report, who added that he could see Democrats getting double digit gains. “I will say it’s too early to say the House is in play.”
The messaging strategy for Democrats isn’t rocket science. If Republicans ditch Trump now – after months of Trump making degrading comments about women, Hispanics, African Americans and Muslims– they can charge members with doing “too little too late.” If Republicans stick with Trump, however, Democrats can continue to force Republicans to answer for a toxic nominee who could have more antics left to come.
Making matters even worse for House Republicans, their own nominee has begun a war against them, with a tweet storm Tuesday blasting the Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI).
Already, Democrats are seizing on the GOP’s heightened vulnerability since the release of the Trump video denigrating women.
Aware of how radioactive Trump was becoming over the weekend, a host of Republicans in tough re-elections raced to disavow him knowing that holding onto the nominee could hurt their own chances.
Rep. Cresent Hardy (R-NV), who is running for re-election in a swing district, stood in from of a rally in Las Vegas Saturday and withdrew support from Trump.
“In order to make a strong family, you have to respect women, wives and mothers. That’s what starts with a strong family. And the disrespect that I’ve heard in recent video tapes, I will no longer support the guy at the head of the ticket for Republican nominee,” Hardy said. “Now, I’ve said all along I would. But I will no longer support him because I think when we degrade that mother, wife and housewife, whatever you want to deal with, daughter, that you degrade America.”
But his opponent jumped on his late un-endorsement.
“Donald Trump is an embarrassment to our country. Objectifying and sexually assaulting women is absolutely disgusting and unacceptable. This is the man who my opponent, Congressman Cresent Hardy, has supported “100 percent” for president,” said Ruben Kihuen, Hardy’s Democratic opponent in the Nevada race, in a Facebook statement Saturday.
Rep. Mike Coffman (R-CO), who never endorsed Trump, but responded to the crude video that was released, asked Trump to step aside, however, that wasn’t enough to stop Democrats from trying to tie him to the nominee.
“For the good of the country, and to give the Republicans a chance of defeating Hillary Clinton, Mr. Trump should step aside,” said Coffman, who is fighting for re-election in a Denver suburbs and had never formally endorsed Trump. “His defeat at this point seems almost certain. And four years of Hillary Clinton is not what is best for this country. Mr. Trump should put the country first and do the right thing.”
In a new ad from the House Majority PAC Tuesday, the Democratic super PAC claimed Colorado’s Coffman was just as extreme as Trump on issues of President Obama’s nationality and abortion.
The Washington Post reported Tuesday that in Wisconsin’s Eighth District, the DCCC is running an ad against Republican nominee Mike Gallagher, in which audio of Trump’s now infamous 2005 hot mic video plays in the background.
“Mike Gallagher still says we have to support Donald Trump. No, we don’t. We don’t have to support Mike Gallagher either,” the ad declares.
Analysts predict Democrats could take back 10 or more seats in the November election, a reach that seemed improbably just weeks ago. On the generic ballot, a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll showed Democrats leading Republicans by six points Tuesday, one of the larger leads all cycle.
“Certainly, it it puts Republicans in a real conundrum, and I think it’s something that they are going to have to contend with in addition to having Trump as such a weight on them,” said one Democratic strategist who spoke with TPM on background because they work closely on House races. “At the end of the day if Clinton is leading Trump nationally by 8 points, Republicans are going to have a really tall order ahead in outperforming the top of the ticket. The party has gone off the deep end. It is not just about Trump it is about the Republican brand.”
The Democratic strategist told TPM that every race was different and that campaigns were still taking time to analyze their own races for which strategy might be most effective.
The Post reported that Democrats were looking at internal polling from the weekend that showed that even after Republican members disavowed Trump, they were still just as vulnerable. What they gained from dumping Trump was offset by what they lost among Trump supporters.
Meanwhile, in a call with House Republicans Monday, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Greg Walden (R-OR) told members that Republican internal polling was trending downward.
In the same call, House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) signaled he was going to be committing all of his time to re-electing House members as they weathered the tumultuous Trump news. Ryan said he would not campaign for Trump, but instead focus his resources and time on saving his members’ jobs – a sign of just how divided and concerned the GOP is about Trump’s effects on the House’s majority.
As a response, Trump went scorched earth on Ryan Tuesday, blasting the speaker and other members who were putting space between themselves and the nominee.
Congressional race analyst Kyle Kondik, who works for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said that Republicans also have to worry that Trump’s own war against the GOP could also have down-ballot effects.
“That would be a real problem if voters took him up on that,” Kondik said.
