What To Watch For In South Carolina’s Debate

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Another debate, another candidate gone. This time it’s Jon Huntsman, who dropped out hours before tonight’s scheduled gathering and endorsed Mitt Romney. That brings to four the number of big name Republicans whose campaigns didn’t make it to South Carolina: Tim Pawlenty, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, and now Huntsman.

For those who remain, the focus is on the now unambiguous frontrunner Mitt Romney, who has plenty of momentum on his side after a strong New Hampshire win. After being mocked all year for his inability to crack the mid-20s in national polls, rank and file Republicans are finally starting to come around. His position in the TPM Polling Average is spiking near 40%, suggesting that the end may be near for the Republican contest.

But first he has to get through South Carolina, a state that broke his heart in 2008 and where he has only recently started looking competitive in polls. And while the nomination is rapidly falling from the grasp of his his dwindling pool of competitors, there still are plenty of things that could go wrong on the way to the coronation, starting with Saturday’s primary. With that in mind, here are a few stories to watch for in tonight’s debate.

Insert Bain Pun Here
The Bain of Romney’s existence, the Bain on his parade, the Bain in his rear, whatever. The point is Romney has yet to show he can handle what may be his greatest vulnerability: Bain Capital. Romney and Democrats were both shocked to see the attack come up in the investor-friendly Republican primary and the frontrunner still seems to have trouble fending off the issue. The press has feasted on his factually dicey claim that Bain created 100,000 jobs and his poll numbers have worryingly fallen off their peak in South Carolina a bit as his CEO days have become the dominant story. Will he get tripped up by questions on the issue in tonight’s debate?

Rich Man Romney
This is related to Romney’s Bain problem, but not quite the same. For whatever reason, Romney seems determined lately to become the aloof gazillionaire caricature his opponents are pushing. From saying inequality should be discussed only in “quiet rooms,” to dismissing criticism of his CEO days as “envy” to saying he “like[s] being able to fire people” (a disastrous line even if it was taken rather out of context), to reminiscing about his days fearing a pink slip, it seems Romney can’t go a day without reminding voters of his privileged status. Each of these fumbles will come back with a vengeance in the general election, where Obama is going full-tilt populist. With Romney’s rivals looking to push him on the issue, he’ll need to be careful not to slip up tonight and hand Obama’s re-election team another gem.

Newt’s Revenge
Newt Gingrich is taking enormous heat from the right for his attacks on Romney over Bain as conservatives fret he’s hobbling the presumptive nominee ahead of his fight with President Obama. It’s not clear whether their pleading is having an effect or not. On the one hand, Gingrich showed some signs of letting up. He called on a Super PAC supporting him to pull an anti-Romney ad that fact checkers had savaged (the Super PAC politely declined). He also notably refrained from going after Romney in his New Hampshire primary night speech. On the other hand, he’s still pushing the Bain story and his own ads attack Romney on everything from abortion to “corporations are people” to putting the Romney clan’s Irish setter on the car roof. It will be very interesting to see which Newt shows up at Monday’s debate.

Rick Perry Goes Out Swinging
He probably gets less than half the coverage Gingrich does for it, but Perry has also been closing out his campaign nastily. Not only is he attacking Romney’s Bain work as “vulture capitalism,” he’s running a parallel effort to rile up the base with an old school incendiary culture war. You don’t have to be in the pew every Sunday, his campaign suggests, to know there’s something wrong when gays can serve openly in the military but the military can’t urinate on enemy corpses. Because he didn’t compete in New Hampshire, Perry went virtually ignored the last couple of weeks, but now he’ll have a stage on which to make his final appeal to thus far nonchalant South Carolina voters. Will he finally get a second chance with a strong debate performance or will his desperate campaign go down screaming?

The Circular Firing Squad
Time and time again, Romney’s rivals have walked into debates hoping to slow his momentum only to end up attacking each other for two hours. Everyone wants to be the last anti-Romney standing, but their constant infighting paradoxically means Romney has had an easier time consolidating support than ever. With Gingrich, Santorum, and Perry all jostling to buy a ticket out of South Carolina, don’t be surprised if the trend holds and they end up ignoring the frontrunner.

The GOP Debate airs on Fox News tonight at 9pm Eastern

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