Herman Cain has been surging, and that’s been major news in the most recent national polls. But within a number of those surveys is a new storyline: voters are starting to favor a Democratically-controlled Congress, as disapproval of the legislative body grows.
A Reuters/Ipsos survey released on Wednesday showed a major gap between the two parties, with 48 percent of voters going for Democrats while 40 percent went for Republicans. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed a four point lead for Democrats, and Public Policy Polling showed a six point edge for Dems.
Below is the TPM Poll Average of the metric, showing a small .1 percent advantage for Democrats, the first they’ve had in our tracking since late in 2009.
Of course, control of Congress depends on a huge number of factors — candidate recruitment, fundraising and local issues are key. A poll last month showed that battleground congressional districts will still be very tough for Democrats. But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee seems to be feeling pretty good about the latest polling, pointing to it in a email blast this morning.
“With the wind now at our backs, we have strong Democratic candidates running in 60 Republican and open districts across the country, putting twice as many seats in play as Democrats need to take the House,” said DCCC Chairman Steve Israel said in the email. “Buyer’s remorse has set in with Independent voters across the country who are rejecting the Republican agenda that ends Medicare and fails to create jobs while protecting special interests and the ultra wealthy at the expense of the middle class and seniors.”
Correction: The original version of this post stated that this was the first time the TPM poll average had shown a Dem advantage since 2008. It is the first since 2009.
