Today is the Florida primary. Tune in to TPM tonight for live coverage and real-time results. Until then, here are ten things you need to know.
- Romney has an 8-point lead heading into the Florida primary: Public Policy Polling’s final survey in Florida has Mitt Romney entering election day with a sizable lead. Romney gets 39% of the GOP electorate polled, followed by Newt Gingrich at 31%, Rick Santorum at 15%, and Rep. Ron Paul at 11%. The TPM Poll Average has Romney a little further ahead with a 10-point lead.
- Gingrich revives tax return attack on Romney: When Mitt Romney released two years of tax returns, Newt Gingrich declared the issue over. But the campaign feels that discrepancies between Romney’s returns and his financial disclosure forms filed to the FEC mean the issue warrants a second look. On Monday evening, the Gingrich campaign sent around a list of “troubling questions about Mitt Romney’s finances,” including the discrepancies, as well as the off-shore accounts turned up in his returns.
- Romney sinks among independents: It seems the primary may be taking a toll on Mitt Romney’s favorability among independents. Since December, Romney’s favorability among independents has declined 13 percentage points. Debates and tough conservative rhetoric probably aren’t doing Romney any favors with this voting bloc — making it even more likely he will quickly pivot back to the center if he secures the nomination.
- Gingrich suffers from low support among women voters: In a recent Florida poll, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney were neck and neck among male voters, but Romney was leading Gingrich by 19 points among women — contributing significantly to Romney’s growing lead in the state. In the past 3 primary contests, women voters haven’t impeded Gingrich, particularly in South Carolina. On the other hand, in national polls, Gingrich trails among women voters, meaning it’s a problem that’s unlikely to go away soon.
- Gingrich lowers expectations in Nevada and Michigan: With a likely loss in Florida Tuesday, Newt Gingrich is headed toward a rocky February. As if a loss of momentum weren’t enough, Nevada, with its large Mormon population, and Michigan, where Romney grew up, were always going to be tough states for Gingrich. Romney won those states in 2008. So it makes sense that Gingrich’s campaign is tamping down expectations there.
- South Carolina delegate count did not end up very proportional: South Carolina’s vote tally is final and delegates have been awarded — and it didn’t turn out as proportionally as many predicted. With 40.43% of the vote, Gingrich took 23 of the state’s 25 delegates. Mitt Romney finished second with 27.85% of the vote and took just 2 delegates. Though subject to a challenge, Florida’s 50 delegates are winner-take-all.
- Florida Democrats release new video on GOP ad war: Titled “The Real Winner in Florida,” Florida Democratic Party’s new video highlights the role the vicious ad wars are playing in the state. The winner may be Mitt Romney tonight, but the message Democrats are pushing is that the real winner of all the GOP infighting is President Obama. Watch the video.
- Romney surrogates attack Gingrich ahead of Nevada caucuses: After Florida comes the Nevada caucuses this weekend. In anticipation, Romney surrogates Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, former Congresswoman Barbara Vucanovich and former Sen. Jim Talent will hold a press conference call on Newt Gingrich “being unreliable for Nevada.”
- The Romney campaign files signatures to appear on Indiana ballot: On Tuesday morning, the Romney campaign announced Rep. Todd Rokita of Indiana will deliver 7,000 certified signatures of registered Indiana voters to the Indiana Elections Division, including “well more than the required 500 signatures in each of Indiana’s nine congressional districts” along with all the necessary paperwork to get on the ballot. Romney is the first candidate to file for the ballot in Indiana and is making a press event out of it Tuesday morning. Filing for each state’s ballot has become a measure of a campaign organization’s sophistication, particularly after all but Romney and Ron Paul failed to appear on the Virginia ballot.
- Gingrich and Romney campaign in Florida, Santorum and Paul in Colorado: On election day, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney will be campaigning in Florida while Ron Paul and Rick Santorum will be in Colorado. The Santorum campaign is offering press free travel by plane and bus to Colorado, around the state, and then to Nevada on Wednesday evening.
