Former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney was knocked from frontrunner status by Texas Gov. Rick Perry about a month ago. Last week, Romney returned the favor.
Perry became the leader as a true conservative that also seems electable to the GOP base. Then he turned in poor debate performances and couldn’t shake a pile-on when other candidates went after the few areas where Perry didn’t completely subscribe to conservative ideology: his Texas mandate of a vaccine that prevents HPV in women and his defense of what is in effect a Texan DREAM Act.
So the GOP is back to square one with Romney and a changed dynamic. Instead of Romney and a field of also-rans that occasionally pose as credible candidates, there is another true contender that resonates with the conservative base. So what’s the next move? Look for the GOP field to go back to hammering the new (and previous) frontrunner, Mitt Romney.
The last two weeks have been about bringing Perry back to earth. Republican pundits started worrying. Poll numbers started dropping. The media seized on Perry’s failures. And then influential Republicans started making calls to New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in hope that he could be their 2012 savior. Because otherwise, they have to accept Romney as the best option.
If you’re a candidate on that stage, the next two weeks should probably be spent proving that Mr. Inevitable is not, in fact, inevitable. And the only way to do that is turn from the Rick Perry pile-on and help Perry himself take on Romney.
There’s a factor that could create more urgency in knocking down the former MA Gov. The state of Florida, in a move to increase its relevance in the presidential primary process, has decided to hold their vote on January 31st, ahead of the traditionally scheduled first first four states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina).
As TPM reported, those states will surely move up as a reaction to this. But for the time being and probably for the rest of the race, Florida becomes more important. And Mitt Romney is doing really well in Florida. Romney also jumped back to the front of the pack in a new Fox national poll conducted midweek, and is making another move in Iowa.
Romney showed in various polling last week that he’s a far stronger candidate in the general election. Even if Republican voters themselves don’t believe it, he’s a serious and viable option for the party, and GOP voters WILL fall in line if other candidates in the primary field fail to make the sale.
Perry’s falling favorability numbers are a problem for him. But that’s a general election problem. For him or any of the other candidates to keep the nomination from getting away from them, they need to attack, and attack fast. Look for the shift coming to a Republican debate stage near you.
