It’s time for Democratic voters to start getting excited about retaining the presidency. The question is, can they?
To be sure, Americans aren’t that enthusiastic about government in general at the moment. And with Democrats running the executive branch and half of the legislative, it stands to reason that President Obama and the party would be taking the brunt of the criticism. But new data released over the last few days shows just how problematic the malaise is becoming for Democrats: Gallup showed a national drop in enthusiasm for Democratic voters, mirrored in Qunnipiac polling of crucial swing states of Ohio and Pennsylvania.
The data is stark. Gallup showed a near even split of Democratic voters and Dem-leaning independents, with 45 percent saying they are more enthusiastic about voting this time around compared to previous elections, and 44 percent saying they were less so. Of course, enthusiasm always climbs as an election approaches. But a look back at the trend in Gallup’s numbers shows that Dems are in a different position than they have been in years: one has to go back to the early part of 2000 to see a similar drop. In March before the 2000 presidential election between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George Bush, only 33 percent of Dems were excited to vote versus 47 percent, a low point in the trend. Now that they are protecting their grasp on the office, Democrats face a similar but less dramatic enthusiasm gap.
Still, it’s early, says Margie Omero, founder of Democratic polling firm Momentum Analysis, who pointed to a few different factors. “First, if this pattern holds to November, that will be difficult for us,” she said. “That’s one of the bigger problems we had last time around. But Presidential years are better for turnout within some demographics, and I still expect to see more turnout from minorities and younger voters. Second, what are we going to see in a GOP nominee? If it’s [former Mass. Gov. Mitt] Romney, I don’t know if he gets people excited.”
That second point, the particular choices voters are being given, could explain why even at a time when Democrats are disheartened, President Obama is running ahead of his possible challengers. In a Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania, a 27 percent plurality of Dems were less excited about voting in 2012 than were more excited, 22 percent. Yet neither Romney or Texas Gov. Rick Perry could best President Obama in a trial heat. Democratic enthusiasm was a little higher in Ohio, with 23 percent of the party faithful more excited about 2012 versus 21 percent less so, but the Presidential matchups still showed statistical dead heats with President Obama ahead.
“We saw same thing with Republicans in 2003 – it was on the other side of them then,” said one senior Democratic strategist in an email to TPM. “They’re [Republicans] in the middle of a campaign and have a target to attack thats in the news every day. What it shows you is that Republicans have done a good job running a single-minded campaign of obstruction and destruction against Barack Obama.”
A Fox News poll out Wednesday night showed the dynamics of the GOP race changing once again: the Republican trial heat put Romney back on top nationally after a month or so of Perry-mania. Perry’s debate performances and scrutiny of his record by fellow candidates have clearly made a dent in his standing within the race, and the new poll shows that GOPers are basically back to square one with Romney. And that could be an enthusiasm problem for Republicans, according to Omero. “I don’t see a lot of excited Romney voters in the GOP primary, let alone the general” she said.
In the end, Dems recognized that the the enthusiasm is something they will have to address, but that’s exactly will happen over the course of the campaign. “This is an important number, but there are more than 12 months until election day, so you have to pay attention to it, but also keep it in context,” the senior Dem strategist cautioned. “This is why we have campaigns and part of what Chicago gets to do over the next year.”
