Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) is a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination. So too is the former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza, Herman Cain, a Pennsylvanian named Rick Santorum who lost his Senate re-election bid four years ago, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson and Rep. Thad McCotter (R-MI), who you actually may not have known is running.
Now, with her explosive ascendency in the GOP primary quickly fading in the shadow of Rick Perry’s arrival on the scene, Bachmann’s candidacy faces a key question heading into tonight’s debate. That being, is she — or has she really ever been — a serious contender?
Despite its less than predictive power, her victory in the Ames Straw Poll made a strong statement about her ability to organize in Iowa, the first caucus state. A state which she could of course still win. But beyond Iowa, the fact is it’s always been hard, if not impossible to see a plausible path to a Bachmann nomination.
The Daily Beast published a piece Sunday night arguing that since tonight’s GOP debate is co-sponsored with the Tea Party Express, Bachmann needs to make a stand in front of her people. It’s even titled “Bachmann’s Tea Party Debate Opening,” and starts like this:
The candidate with the most at stake is the Tea Party queen herself, Michele Bachmann, who badly needs to capitalize on the sympathetic audience. The congresswoman’s luster has clearly faded since her Iowa straw-poll victory last month, and she was practically invisible in last week’s MSNBC-Politico debate.
Bachmann’s team, which recently lost the full-time services of campaign manager Ed Rollins, was steamed that she got relatively few questions at the debate. Moderators Brian Williams and John Harris clearly kept the spotlight focused on Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, and their sparring dominated not just the evening but the headlines for days afterward.
Bachmann took no swings at the Texas governor, who has rocketed to the top of the GOP polls, but there are signs she will take him on Monday — if only to grab a share of the limelight. The format could not be better suited to Bachmann — a single moderator (Wolf Blitzer) who will allow questions from Tea Party activists in the audience and similar groups watching around the country.
The conclusion holds the Bachmann call to action:
No single debate is as important as the storyline that emerges from it. Perry must show that he can stop the bleeding on a sensitive issue. Romney, who scored few points by attacking Perry’s jobs record, needs to prove he is nimble enough to stay on offense. And Bachmann, after being relegated to the sidelines, has to get into the arena.
Get in the arena? Even with the drawing power of Bachmann fascination, the idea that her candidacy has chance to at this point be more than tea party agitator seems a stretch. In late August TPM made the point that she had peaked. That was true then and frankly, remains true now. Much of Bachmann’s momentum came on the back of a string of surprisingly good performances in national polls (she even led one, by a single point).
But it couldn’t be any more clear after the entrance of Perry that her status as a “major contender” was created through narrative, not numbers. Bachmann tested well against previous frontrunner, former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney, who was trying to be the “inevitable candidate.” Technically it was Texas Gov. Rick Perry that mitigated her support in the primary process, but it really could have been any GOP heavyweight candidate that decided to enter the race as a challenge to Romney.
CNN released a poll ahead of Monday night’s debate, and Bachmann has a very poor showing. She only retains 4 percent support within the field, which reflects precisely the amount she had in the last national poll, a FOX News survey. Cain and former House Speaker Newt Grigrich are both polling ahead of Bachmann with 5 percent. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) has triple her support at 12, Romney has 18 and Perry 30. Among Tea Party supporters Bachmann sees no bump in the poll: 4 percent support her, whereas 38 percent support Perry.
It seems safe to say Michele Bachmann is probably not going to emerge as the GOP’s nominee in 2012. But to channel the sentiment of a Comedy Central host, one wonders whether the CNN poll’s third place (of announced candidates) finisher Ron Paul can get back in the arena, having never actually been invited in.
