Quinnipiac: Romney, Gingrich Show Strength Against Obama

Newt Gingrich
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Quinnipiac University released a trio of polls on traditional swing states Thursday that challenge the long held belief that former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney is the more electable presidential candidate for the Republican Party in 2012. Polling of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida shows that Romney still does slightly better against Obama than former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who has shot to the top of the polls nationally and in the first primary states, but the gap is closing.

In Florida, Romney bests Obama 45 – 42, while Obama tops Gingrich 46 – 44. In Ohio it’s Romney over Obama 43 – 42 with a Gingrich–Obama matchup the same. In Pennsylvania the two Republicans fare differently, with Obama moving past Romney 46 – 43 and by Gingrich 48 – 40. Gingrich is also up by 13 points in a trial heat of the Florida Republican primary, which is set to take place on January 31st.

“Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is no longer just the flavor of the month since his boomlet has now stretched from November into December and voting begins in Iowa in less than four weeks,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute said in a release. “The suspension of Herman Cain’s campaign is unlikely to hurt Gingrich and might help him vis-a-vis Romney by reducing the number of candidates courting Tea Party voters.”

“Gingrich certainly has the momentum on his side and is peaking at the right moment, but Romney has the edge in money and organization, which can be important especially if the primary race turns out to be a long, drawn-out affair,” said Brown.

As has been a common refrain this cycle, the close results are mainly due to voter frustration with the candidates from both parties. The worst example of this is in the crucial state of Ohio, where Obama is down with voters but Republicans haven’t made tremendous inroads either.

Gingrich gets a negative 32 – 38 percent favorability rating from all Ohio voters, compared to Romney’s positive 32 – 28 percent and Obama’s negative 42 – 52 percent.

Ohio voters disapprove of the job Obama is doing 55 – 41 percent and say 53 – 42 percent he does not deserve reelection.

The Quinnipiac polls used live telephone interviews with registered voters conducted from Nov. 29th to Dec. 5th. There were 1,226 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent, 1,437 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent, and 1,453 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent.

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