The Gingrich surge is upon us, with Newt the latest GOP candidate to take a national lead in Quinnipiac’s polling of the Republican primary. New data out Tuesday morning shows him taking 26 percent of GOPers with former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney in second with 22, followed by a fading businessman Herman Cain in third at 14. The rest of the field is in single digits.
Conservative voters have flocked to Gingrich, as the numbers show he wins 30 percent of them to Romney’s 21, while Romney beats Gingrich on moderates 28 – 17. Conservative voters in the Republican primary have been the most mobile in the race, flocking from Texas Gov. Rick Perry to Cain and now Gingrich as the alternative to Romney. Newt also has outsized Tea Party support and wins among evangelical voters.
The poll also shows President Obama does much better against Gingrich than he does against Romney in a national matchup. Last month’s Quinninpiac polling shows marked improvement for Obama, as he lead Romney by five and others by double digits. His lead against Romney in the new survey has been cut to one, while the President bests Gingrich in a contest 49 – 40.
The difference between the two trial heats is independents. Romney and Obama essentially run even with unaffiliated voters, while Obama has a ten point lead with them against Gingrich. There’s also a difference between voters who make over $100,000 — that group breaks for Romney by eleven points, but then flips back to Obama by three in a matchup against Gingrich. Partisan support has coalesced behind both of the party’s respective candidates.
But on the most important issue for voters, the economy, Romney is leading the President at the moment. From Quinnipiac:
All voters say 46 – 41 percent that Romney is better able than Obama to handle the economy, the only one of the three top GOP candidates to outscore the president. Gingrich trails Obama 47 – 41 percent and Cain trails 49 – 38 percent on that measure.
“By 74 – 24 percent, GOP voters say they would prefer a candidate with whom they agreed on the issues rather than one who can win in November,” said Brown. “Although more seem to prefer Gingrich on issues, it’s clear that they agree Romney is their best candidate in November. The key for Romney will be retaining the perception of being a winner, while convincing skeptical conservatives that he shares their views and values.”
Check out the TPM Poll Average of the GOP race here.
The Quinnipiac poll used 2,552 live telephone interviews with registered voters conducted from November 14th to the 20th. It has a sampling error of 1.9 percent.
