President Obama’s approval rating is only 43 percent in Iowa. But that’s higher than any Republican candidate can get against him.
Public Policy Polling released new data on Wednesday showing Obama out in front of every member of the GOP field in head-to-head matchups, despite 53 percent of Iowans who disapprove of his job performance. The closest competitor is former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney, who is bested by Obama 46 – 42 in a trial heat. Businessman Herman Cain is next closest, but still gets beaten 47 – 41. Former frontrunner Texas Gov. Rick Perry is down ten, 49 – 39.
“Obama’s unpopular in Iowa but he appears to be in position to win the state next year anyway,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling in a release. “Extended exposure to the Republican field of candidates doesn’t seem to have Democrats and independents in Iowa pining to vote for the GOP next fall.”
The numbers bear the “extended exposure” point out — favorability ratings are a real problem for the GOP candidates in Iowa. Nearly three times as many people dislike Perry (60 percent) than like him (21 percent). Romney is nearly twenty points underwater, and the only GOP candidate that approaches being even is Cain with a 35 percent favorable rating against 40 percent.
A look within the numbers shows that the Republican field is really down with moderate voters. Perry is viewed unfavorably by 66 percent of of that group, Romney by 50 percent and Cain by 45. The only plurality that views the candidates favorably is their own base, and even that can be close: Perry gets an even split on favorabilities with “very conservative” voters, 38 – 38.
But when it comes to actually making a choice in matchups, independent voters are fairly split: Obama wins more against Perry, Romney wins more against Obama. But the President has sewn up his base in Iowa, pulling between 86 and 90 percent of Democrats, while the Republican candidates have solidified support from their party faithful in the high seventies and low eighties. That provides a window for Republicans: if they can get their own voters to commit, it looks like Iowa could get very close very fast. Iowa was a state that Obama won by over nine percent in 2008.
The PPP poll used 749 automated telephone interviews with registered Iowa voters conducted from Oct. 7th to the 10th. There is a sampling error of 3.6 percent.
