PPP: Paul, Romney Battle For Iowa

Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)
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As former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has faded in Iowa following a barrage of negative ads, the latest polls show the race coming down to Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) and former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney. Numbers out from Public Policy Polling (D) on Tuesday night show that while Gingrich has dropped in the state, GOP voters are moving to Romney as an alternative while Paul builds slightly on the support he’s been building for months. The survey shows Paul with 24 percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers, Romney with 20, and Gingrich 13. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) sees 11 percent support, while Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum both get ten percent. The rest of the field is in single digits.

“If Ron Paul really manages to change the electorate by turning out large numbers of
young people and independents he should win Iowa,” said Dean Debnam, President of
Public Policy Polling in a release. “If it’s a more traditional turnout with an older electorate, Romney will probably win. And given his personal popularity it’s worth keeping an eye on
Santorum in the final week.”

The huge drop for Gingrich over the last month seems to come from his favorability rating among Republicans in the state — it now stands at 37 favorable against 54 unfavorable after he’s been the target of negative ads from both Super PACs supporting with other candidates along with the traditional campaigns. Romney has an underwater rating as well (44 – 47), but a quarter of likely caucus-goers think that he has the best shot to beat President Obama.

The PPP poll also has some numbers that seem to show why Iowa has leaned toward picking more conservative candidates over the last few presidential cycles: 58 percent of voters polled said that candidates’ positions on the issues were more important in their vote, versus 30 percent who said they wanted the candidate best suited to win in November 2012. And Republican priorities are slightly different in the PPP numbers than they are nationally — 39 percent rated cutting government debt as the top issue, with jobs and the economy second at 25 percent. Nearly all available polling shows jobs and the economy as the number one issue for Americans generally.

While the poll shows that Paul certainly has credibility on issues with Iowa Republicans, it’s his more diverse base that seems to give him the edge ahead of the January 3rd caucuses. From PPP’s analysis:

Paul’s strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that’s pretty unusual for a Republican in the state. Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats. GOP caucus voters tend to skew old, and Romney has a 34-12 advantage with seniors. But Paul’s candidacy looks like it’s going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney.

The TPM Poll Average of the GOP race in Iowa follows the PPP numbers closely.

The PPP poll used 565 automated interviews with likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers conducted from Demcember 26th to the 27th. It has a sampling error of 4.1 percent.

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