PPP: Obama Tops GOP In Virginia

President Barack Obama
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The long journey from Republican stronghold to swing state ended for Virginia in 2008, when it went for President Obama by over six points. But in 2009, with the President’s approval rating down and the economy stuck in first gear, the state elected a Republican Governor in Bob McDonnell.

Yet a new poll from Public Policy Polling (D) shows that the Presidential race is entirely a different matter: it’s being determined by a choice between President Obama — who VA voters are split on — and two major GOP candidates that voters in state currently find unappealing.

Obama bests former MA Gov. Mitt Romney 48 percent to 42, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich 50 to 43. But the President does so with an approval rating below fifty percent in the state (48 – 47), mainly because Romney and Gingrich fare far worse in the eyes of Virginia voters. Only 31 percent see Gingrich favorably against 55 percent, and it’s nearly as bad for Romney at 33 – 52.

“It continues to look like Virginia may be Obama’s firewall state,” said Dean Debnam,
President of Public Policy Polling in a release. “He’s holding up well there and it’s going to be tough for the Republicans to get to 270 electoral votes without it in their column.”

The problem for Gingrich is independent voters: about a quarter of indies see the former Speaker favorably versus the 57 percent who see him unfavorably. Romney’s issue is Republican voters: he sees a near split on favorability among voters in his own party at 44 – 42. So it’s fairly easy to see that there’s an easier path to victory for Romney in the state: Gingrich would have to convince independent voters that he’s a viable replacement for Obama, while Romney would have to galvanize his own party in support of his candidacy, which is a much easier proposition given how much data shows that Republicans are no fans of the President.

That divide already exists in the poll. Gingrich does better with Republicans and causes more Democrats and independent voters to go with Obama, but Romney picks up more unaffiliated voters while losing Republicans and gaining a few Dems. In short, the data shows Gingrich to be a polarizing figure in the newly minted swing state, while Romney presents a more moderate option and ultimately looks like a better candidate for Republicans who want to win there.

The PPP poll used 600 automated telephone interviews conducted Dec. 11th to the 13th with registered VA voters. It has a sampling error of 4 percent.

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