A new round of Republican primary and caucus polling from Public Policy Polling (D) — conducted almost entirely before the recent controversy involving past allegations against Herman Cain of sexual harassment — show Cain leading among Republicans in North Carolina and Maine. But perhaps more importantly, PPP’s analysis suggests that in the event of any potential Cain collapse, the likeliest beneficiary would be…Newt Gingrich.
Gingrich’s campaign has been plagued by fundraising and personnel problems, plus the candidate’s own gaffes and scrutiny of his personal life. But then again, the field has indeed gone through a cycle of conservative Tea Party voters looking for an alternative to Mitt Romney, only for problems to emerge with each one that comes along. (See Bachmann, M. and Perry, R. etc.)
Could Newt’s number finally come up?
The North Carolina poll was conducted from October 27-31, with the big story breaking on only the last day of polling. The numbers: Cain 30%, Gingrich 22%, Romney 19%, Perry 10%, Bachmann 4%, Paul 4%, Santorum 2%, Huntsman 2%, and 0% for Gary Johnson.
The Maine poll was conducted from October 28-31. The numbers: Cain 29%, Romney 24%, Gingrich 18%, Bachmann 5%, Paul 5%, Perry 4%, Santorum 2%, Huntsman 1%, Johnson 1%.
The pollster’s analysis, meanwhile, finds that Gingrich is well-positioned if Cain implodes: “In North Carolina he’s the second choice of 29% of Cain voters, compared to 16% for Romney, 15% for Perry, and 10% for Bachmann. In Maine he’s the second choice of 26% of Cain voters to 17% for Romney and 15% for Perry.”
Furthermore:
It’s no surprise that Gingrich would be the beneficiary of a Cain collapse, because Tea Party voters have been the foundation of Cain’s surge and Newt polled second with that group of GOP loyalists on both of our polls over the weekend. In North Carolina 42% of Tea Partiers preferred Cain to 25% for Gingrich, 11% for Romney, and 10% for Perry. Gingrich’s favorability with Tea Party voters there is 83/14 compared to 49/42 for Romney and 48/42 for Perry. In Maine 38% of Tea Partiers preferred Cain to 29% for Gingrich and 9% for Romney. There Gingrich’s favorability with those voters is 75/19 to 53/36 for Romney and 35/47 for Perry. Tea Party voters like Gingrich far more than Romney and Perry so it stands to reason that if there is a Cain collapse, Newt will be the immediate beneficiary.
