Two new polls this morning show former House Speaker Newt Gingrich adding to his lead in Iowa and South Carolina with the first votes in the Republican Presidential Primary less than a month away. A Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Gingrich up in Iowa and a Winthrop University poll has him with the lead in South Carolina.
The ABC/WaPo poll of Iowa shows Gingrich with a third of the vote, as former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) are second with 18 percent each. The poll “suggests that Gingrich holds the advantage to some extent because he lacks the negatives that are pulling back his top two rivals — for Romney, his record on health care and weak ratings on standing up for his beliefs; for Paul, his isolationist views and doubts about his electability,” ABC pollster Gary Langer wrote.
Still, just as has been the case for the entire 2012 GOP race, many voters are not firm in their support. 52 percent of likely GOP caucus-goers in the Iowa poll say they could change their minds, with 45 percent saying they won’t change. But as we’ve seen over the last few months, voters have changed from one alternate candidate to Romney to another, despite around 30 to 40 percent of the Republican electorate saying their support is solid.
Gingrich gets the nod from 38.4 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents who plan to vote in the South Carolina Republican Primary, with Romney finishing with 21.5 percent in the Winthrop poll. South Carolina has clearly shifted to the Gingrich column for the moment, as this is the fourth poll in a row to show him with over thirty points of support and a double digit lead.
The ABC/WaPo poll used 356 telephone interviews with likely Iowa caucus-goers conducted from Nov. 30th to Dec. 4th, which has a sampling error of six percent. The Winthrop poll used interviews with likely Republican and GOP-leaning registered independent voters conducted from Nov. 27th to Dec. 4th, and has a sampling error of 5.38.
