Congressional Democrats have had some reason to be optimistic about retaking the House in 2012, as national polls have shown high disapproval of Congressional Republicans despite taking control less than a year ago. But a new poll of battleground districts currently held by the GOP that has some disappointing news for Dems: anger at Congress is hitting them hard too, and the Presidential race may provide them with a drag rather than a boost in their hopes to retake the House.
Dems had an edge in early August on the generic congressional ballot in a Gallup poll, showing that a majority of Americans nationwide were more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate, and other polling has run fairly even. But the battleground poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner on behalf of Democracy Corps showed a much difficult picture within these swing districts.
A majority of voters were ready to voter for the GOP candidate, at 50 percent, versus only 41 that planned on supporting the Democratic one. Within that number, independents were more likely to go for the Republican by a 48 – 37 margin, and Republicans were slightly more enthusiastic about their own candidates. 93 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning voters were ready to vote for the party, while 87 percent of Democrats were ready to do the same.
Of course, running campaigns in 435 districts presents major challengers on both sides: finding quality candidates that can fundraise prolifically is a huge part of winning the House, and there are always local issues in each race that help or hurt candidates. A poll based on generics can really only describe trends. But one component of the poll does seem particularly difficult for Democrats. The Presidential election may be a drag, not a help for many of the Dem candidates.
Both major contenders for the GOP nomination led President Obama in the poll, but inside the margin of error. Former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney led Obama 49 – 43, and Perry led 49 – 45. The poll shows something not lost any political watcher: as of right now the 2012 Presidential will be very close in the swing districts polled, and results will depend a lot turnout. In both Presidential heats, independent voters are split directly down the middle, as both partisan sides are galvanized against each other.
In a write up that accompanied the survey, pollsters tried to assuage Democrats who may take it as bad news, and pointed to fact that Republicans aren’t exactly loved:
“This is obviously not the best moment to judge the Democrats’ eventual fortunes–with fewer voters identifying as Democrats, with Democrats themselves less enthusiastic about the president, and with his overall approval rating down 7 points and losing independents in these districts. We do not yet know the public’s reaction to the president’s latest initiatives, but there is reason to believe they can help him and the Democrats here.
Whatever else is happening on the Democratic side, the bigger story is the growing vulnerability of the incumbent House Republicans. The mood of the country is deeply pessimistic and voter anger encompasses the Republicans as well, particularly the new House members.
These would be takeaway opportunities for Democrats, so the pressure is still on Republicans. But these aren’t numbers like 2006, or the change election of 2008.
The poll used 1,000 live telephone interviews with likely voters in swing 60 congressional districts conducted from September 14th to the 19th. It has a sampling error of 3.1 percent.
