Poll: Sherrod Brown Leads GOPers In Ohio, But Challenger Gaining

Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown (D) and Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel (R)
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The new survey of Ohio from Public Policy Polling (D) shows first-term Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown still ahead of his Republican challengers in his race for re-election — but by less than in previous polling.

Brown leads the likely GOP nominee, state Treasurer Josh Mandel, by 48%-40%. He also leads Republican former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin by 48%-37%.

In the previous poll from mid-August, Brown led Mandel by a wider 48%-33%, and led Coughlin by 47%-43%.

The new survey of registered voters was conducted from October 13-16, and has a ±4.1% margin of error.

From the pollster’s analysis:

Most of the change in the horseraces comes from Republicans and independents leaving the fence, and most of them are siding with the Republican candidates, a potentially worrying sign for Brown. But the math remains in his favor. Even if all the rest of the undecided Republicans and independents fall to the GOP nominee, and the undecided Democrats fall proportionately to where they are now, Brown would win with about 53% of the vote against Coughlin and 52% versus Mandel. So the high level of undecided Republicans and independents makes only four or five points of difference if everything else holds. It would take an erosion in Brown’s Democratic support or in Democratic turnout to change the game. The potential is there for the former–19% of Democrats disapprove of the senator’s job performance. But 15% of Republicans also approve, and when it comes time to vote, neither he nor the Republicans can muster much crossover support at this point.

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