Poll: Ohio Ready To Repeal Union Busting Bill

Gov. John Kasich (R-OH)
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Ohio is poised to repeal Republican Gov. John Kasich’s signature legislative initiative, a law limiting the collective bargining rights of public sector employees.

A new poll from Public Policy Polling (D) ahead of an upcoming referendum shows that state voters are ready to scuttle the law, and if given the chance, they wouldn’t have elected Kasich in the first place: the current Gov. loses in a re-do of the 2010 race against then-incumbent Dem Ted Strickland 54 – 40.

The buyer’s remorse over Kasich is not new in Ohio. The Governor seemed to have rankled his state almost immediately by proposing SB 5, the union-busting bill. Polls from PPP and Quinnipiac University showed that voters were ready to repeal it as soon as it passed, and will now get the chance due to a referendum pushed by pro-union forces.

Kasich, possibly seeing the writing on the wall, then proposed that he and repeal supporters make a deal in order to call the referendum off. Supporters of deep-sixing the law said they would talk — if Kasich and the legislature repealed the bill first.

After all that, PPP says it’s fairly clear what’s going happen on November 8th: 56 percent of Ohio voters are ready to repeal the bill, with only 36 percent in favor of keeping it. And all the fuss over SB 5 has cost Gov. Kasich support with Democratic voters, who are trending against the bill and are essential in the state. From PPP:

If Kasich himself were up for a vote instead of his legislation, former Gov. Ted Strickland would rout Kasich by a 54-40 margin. SB5 is headed for repeal by an even larger 56-36 margin, up from 50-39 in August. Most of the movement has come from Democrats, 80% of whom are now against it, with only 13% planning to approve SB5. That is up 19 points on the margin from 69-21 only two months ago. With 30% of Republicans in this blue-collar, Rust-Belt state against SB5, and Democrats making up a 47% plurality of voters and his own party only 37%, Kasich cannot rely on turnout alone to prevail. He has to get more of the GOP in line or break the 46-46 tie with independents.

Self-described moderates are breaking incredibly hard against SB 5: 70 percent say they are going to vote for repeal, against only 20 percent who are in favor of keeping it. Those numbers are higher among liberals, but only by about ten points, showing just how harshly the middle of the electorate seems to have reacted towards the bill.

The poll used 581 automated telephone interviews with Ohio voters conducted between October 13th and the 16th. It has a sampling error of 4.1 percent.

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