Lest anyone think that businessman Herman Cain’s jump in the polls is restricted to national polling driven by media hype, new data from NBC News and Marist shows Mr. Cain doing well in early primary states as well.
In two major surveys of South Carolina and Florida, two early states in the Republican primary process, businessman Herman Cain pulls major support from GOP voters. Cain is leading in the Palmetto State by four points and up by one in Florida among likely voters, making things very competitive for the frontrunner there former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney. In both polls Cain and Romney are battling for the top spot and Texas Gov. Rick Perry has fallen into the single digits. Perry had previously led both states, and was in front by more than twenty in South Carolina during late August.
Cain has 30 percent and Romney 26 in a GOP trial heat in South Carolina, and the race gets slightly tighter if you include leaners. In Florida, the race actually changes hands if leaners are included: Cain is up on Romney among voters at the moment 32 – 31, but waffling voters put Romney on top 33 – 32 if they are included. The two men are the only candidates in double digits in both states, with the rest field split around forty percent of the primary vote.
In both cases, about a quarter of Republican primary voters say that they might vote differently as the election date approaches, with the bulk of GOPers saying that they either strongly or somewhat support their chosen candidate. However, the races thus far has been marked by wild swings in support, both nationally and within early primary states, so the only thing that seems completely safe to say is that nothing is safe to say.
What is particularly striking is the difference in support between Cain and Romney in both states. Cain performs better among Tea Party backers, very conservative voters, evangelical Christians and Republicans who have viewed the past GOP debates.
Romney, by contrast, over-performs among Republicans who don’t identify with the Tea Party, as well as those who consider themselves liberals and moderates.
NBC also pointed out a data point that could help explain how candidates like Perry, who has been attacked over immigration and a mandate over the HPV vaccine, are gaining and losing support so quickly. GOP voters are paying attention to the issues that are important to them: “In South Carolina, a combined 58 percent say a candidate sharing their values or their positions on the issues is more important in deciding their vote. That’s compared with a combined 39 percent who say experience and electability will determine their vote. In Florida, it’s a combined 54 percent for values and issues, versus 44 percent for experience and electability.”
The South Carolina poll used 639 live telephone interviews with Republican voters conducted from October 11th to the 13th, which has a sampling error of 3.9 percent. The Florida poll used 748 Republican voters conducted October 10th to the 12th, which has a sampling error 3.6 percent.
