Iowa Poll Roundup: Mitt Looks Up, Paul Off Balance, Santorum Moves

Mitt Romney
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And then there was Mitt Romney. Or rather, there’s always been Mitt Romney.

The former Massachusetts Governor is the focal point of new polling ahead of the January 3rd Iowa caucuses, which shows Mr. Inevitable moving from his second place position to the leader in the TPM Poll Average of the Republican race in the state.

For most of the primary season, Romney has been behind the GOP flavor of the month in Iowa, maintaining a level of support in the mid to high teens. As Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich fell in late December, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) stepped in to take the lead. But as votes approach, it’s Romney who has picked up steam, partially due to the increased attention paid to Paul by both the media and his opponents.

The Texas Congressman has seen the press take hold of a controversy about newsletters with racist, homophobic content published in his name, and it seems to have eaten away at just enough support to give Romney the lead. The former governor is now scoring in the low to mid twenties in public polls.

Of course, Paul’s supporters are famously loyal, and his campaign organization is the strongest in Iowa. But while Paul was touching the mid twenties in the polls last week, he seemed to have picked up some support from wayward Gingrich voters, who has dropped but stabilized in the mid-teens over the last nine surveys. Those supporters who have just converted to Paul are unlikely to be as loyal as his core, who are undeterred by the newsletter issue.

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who has campaigned in Iowa relentlessly for months, has finally seen some movement after being in the mid single digits for the entire campaign season. Santorum jumped to sixteen percent (good for third place) in a CNN poll of the state, a number that was matched in a Rasmussen survey from Thursday. But others, including numbers from American Research Group, InsiderAdvantage, Public Policy Polling (D) showed the former senator between 10 and 13 points. So while Santorum is doing better, he looks to be another beneficiary of lost Gingrich support.

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