The new Public Policy Polling (D) survey of the Iowa caucuses provides further corroboration of recent polls, with Newt Gingrich ahead in the key first Republican contest — and with Ron Paul pulling narrowly ahead of Mitt Romney for second place.
The numbers: Gingrich 27%, Paul 18%, Romney 16%, Michele Bachmann 13%, Rick Perry 9%, Rick Santorum 6%, Jon Huntsman 4%, and Gary Johnson 1%.
In the previous PPP survey of Iowa, from mid-October, Herman Cain led with 30%, followed by Romney at 22%, Paul 10%, Perry 9%, Gingrich 8%, Bachmann 8%, Santorum 5%, Huntsman 1%, and Johnson 1%.
From the pollster’s analysis:
Gingrich’s rise to the top is being fueled by strong support from seniors and the Tea Party. With voters over 65 he’s at 37% leading Romney’s 18% and Paul’s 11% by 19 and 26 points respectively. With Tea Party voters Gingrich is at 35% with Bachmann actually coming in at second with 23%, Paul in third at 14%, and Romney all the way back at just 4%.
In addition, respondents also think Gingrich is more electable than Romney — the opposite of the conventional wisdom among national pundits — by a 33%-23% margin, with no other candidate ranking in double digits on this question.
Finally:
One reason Gingrich is moving ahead of Romney in Iowa? 42% of voters say they would have major concerns about a candidate who supported an individual mandate for health care to just 34% who say they’d have major concerns about a candidate who cheated on his spouse. Romney’s health care plan is a bigger liability than Gingrich’s marriages.
Of course, Gingrich used to enthusiastically support the mandate, too! On the other hand, a lot of respondents might not know that — and Romney is hardly in a position to attack Gingrich on the issue, because he is the one who actually first enacted it in Massachusetts.
The survey of likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted from December 3-5, and has a ±4.1% margin of error.
