Democratic and labor forces won the day in Ohio on Tuesday. Voters turned back SB 5, a law that stripped many collective bargaining rights from public employees, which Republican proponents argued was necessary to keep state and local budgets under control. Conservatives won on Issue 3, a symbolic health care vote on the individual insurance mandate coming in 2014, but it wasn’t contested nor will have it have an effect on policy in the state. So with victory in hand, Dems celebrated in Columbus.
But was does the result portend for the election year ahead, in this key swing state?
Here’s a rundown of the major political drivers in Ohio over the next year.
Redistricting
Hey Ohio, you ready for another referendum? Well you may get one. Dems originally cried foul on the new Congressional electoral map drawn up by statehouse Republicans, which, not surprisingly, favors Republicans. So Democrats said if the map goes forward as planned, they’d start collecting signatures for another referendum. Republicans then said they’d meet at the negotiating table, but Dems said the offer basically wasn’t serious, so they started collecting the signatures. Republicans went ahead with a vote on the new map, which was passed and signed in September.
Now the effort to redraw the map and head off the referendum effort is being revived, as Dems were out on election day continuing to collect signatures to scuttle it. It’s also caused another problem of timing — if Ohio sticks with the GOP map, there will be two primary dates, one in March for the legislature and US Senate race and then another in June for the congressional seats and presidential.
But the reports out of Ohio say that there’s no deal on redistricting imminent, although Dems say they are open to one. But they’re preparing for the referendum in either case, which would take place in November 2012. The problem with that is the state lost two Congressional seats, so it’s not usable in its current form, which means some solution has to be reached, whether it’s for 2012 or longer.
US Senate race
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is up for re-election. A first term member, he’s one of the most committed labor advocates in Congress so the vote on SB 5 naturally bodes well for him. He’s up in the polls versus his likely challenger, State Treasurer Josh Mandel, who has yet to officially announce but has filed the official paperwork and is certainly viewed as the challenger. There’s been some indirect sniping in the race, but it hasn’t really heated up, and Dems are quick to say that Brown is focusing on his job in the Senate versus concentrating on any potential challengers.
But now that the SB 5 fight is over, Dems are clearly ready to take advantage of results in any of these potential races. Mandel was on the record supporting it for months, and opponents of the bill took umbrage with his statement that the anti-union law was about “respecting” the cops, firefighters and teachers that the bill would effect. So expect that to be in a TV ad at some point. The TPM Poll Average of a possible Brown–Mandel matchup has Brown up by double digits as of right now.
The Presidential
For the Obama Campaign, it’s all about the ground game. Yes, likely challenger and former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney flipped on the issue, showing up at a pro-SB 5 call center only to not take a position on the bill, then saying he was totally behind it the next day. But the real upside for Dems is the ground game that the whole process produced. Dems argue that they not only had to gather enough signatures to defeat SB 5, they had to stop another bill, HB 194, which would have hampered early voting in the state, by collecting the signatures to put that on the ballot as well. Were it not for that, they say, they wouldn’t have been able to produce the early voting results that they did on the repeal of SB 5, and the momentum they now have from a 22 point victory on repeal would be less robust.
That’s basically a long way of saying SB 5 has produced enthusiasm amongst Dem activists at a time when they really needed it, as the President’s numbers in the state aren’t exactly stellar.
So in arguably the most important swing state in the nation, Dems present a unified front of confidence in 2012 after the SB 5 defeat, which is a bright spot nationally after a summer of downer polls on the presidential side and a Senate map in which Democrats have to defend over 20 seats. But as fresh data shows, traditional swing states are living up to their reputation right now, and SB 5 or not, Ohio is going to be tough for both sides.
