The election is more than a year away, but as of right now, a majority of Americans in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll say they expect to see a new President after January 20th, 2013.
The new survey shows that only 37 percent of Americans think President Obama will win re-election, while a majority of 55 percent think he will lose in November of next year. Polling firm Langer Research conducted the survey, and pointed to the partisan breakdown as the main driver in the result, especially unaffiliated voters. From their report:
It’s a challenging finding for the president because expectations can fuel voter enthusiasm – precisely the ingredient that led the GOP to its broad success in the 2010 midterms, when charged-up conservatives turned out, while dispirited Democrats stayed home.
Democrats do expect Obama to win, but they say so only by 58-33 percent – a comparatively tepid vote of confidence within his own party. Republicans, by contrast, smell victory by a vast 83-13 percent. And independents – the lynchpin of national politics – by 54-36 percent expect the Republican candidate to beat Obama.
Of course, this data is a microcosm of the polling trends in the presidential race since the debt debacle of the summer. Survey after survey has shown Obama with an approval rating at the lowest levels of his presidency, coupled with general voter anger directed toward Washington and frustration with the stagnant economy. Yet when matched against the actual opponents he may face in the general election, he still seems to hold an edge in swing states.
Despite all the bad news, Obama continues to be in a dead heat or leading in recent polling against former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Gov. Rick Perry in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. So while Americans are sour on Obama’s re-election’s chances at the moment, it’s probably more based on dissatisfaction than anything.
The ABC/WaPo poll used 1,002 live telephone interviews with American adults from Sept. 29th to Oct. 2nd. It has a sampling error of 4 percent.
