Opinions, Context & Ideas from the TPM Editors TPM Editor's Blog

How Russia's New Defense Doctrine Is Like Fox News

Yes, believe me, I can really vindicate that headline.

Over the last year or so I've read a few think tank papers (I think from Rand, perhaps not) on Russia's evolving defense doctrine (sometimes called Next Generation Warfare, Hybrid Warfare or the Gerasimov Doctrine, after the current chief of the Russian General Staff). The gist of it is a move away from traditional war-fighting with tanks and ICBMs and aircraft carriers to something more like the asymmetric warfare we associate with small states or non-state actors. This is not surprising. As I explained in my earlier post, Russia purports to be and in some ways remains a Great Power but must do so on the back of an economy that is at best middling in global terms. For point of comparison: Russia's GDP by their official exchange rate is $1.325 Trillion. Compare that to South Korea ($1.77 Trillion), Brazil ($1.773 Trillion), Italy ($1.816 Trillion), United States ($17.95 Trillion). To live up to Russia's Great Power or even regional power pretensions means a dramatic rethinking of the terrain of warfare and defense and a radical expansion of what is considered legitimate war-fighting and what is considered a legitimate target.

Read More →

Some Side Thoughts on Russia

Over the weekend I wrote a post which I said would be part of a series on Russia. That's coming. But the first post led to a brief interchange with TPM Reader BS, which I wanted to share here in full, his notes and my replies.

Read More →

At Your Fingertips

You know we have PollTracker and our Electoral Scoreboards here at TPM to keep you up to date on the latest numbers for all the races around the country. But I wanted to point out that we now have the "toplines" for both just below the navigation bar up at the top of the TPM front page. See "Election Scoreboards" just below the TPM logo. And then all the data is to the right. There you'll find the current PollTracker Avg for the presidential national horse race polls and the Electoral Scoreboard tally of electoral votes. Click through on either to go to the full data.

Just a reminder. Want to be absolutely sure you're totally up to date with all the polls in the races that matter to you? Download the free Polltracker smartphone app. It's available for iPhone and Android devices. And it notifies you every time a poll is released in races you choose to follow.

Weakness Not Strength

With the furor over the Trump campaign and the on-going DNC et al. hacking story, I've become increasingly interested in what was already a pet interest of mine: the growing list of Russian propaganda networks operating in the West and Russia's growing embrace of asymmetric warfare, particularly information warfare, whether in the form of hacking, surreal state-sponsored trolling operations or news and propaganda networks operating more or less openly with state sponsorship. But before getting into a series of posts on the subject, I wanted to start with one key and often overlooked point.

Read More →

I Need Two Minutes Right Now

Yes, our annual Prime sign up drive continues because it's just that important.

You get all sorts of great stuff: exclusive reporting, a cleaner faster version of the site with fewer ads, no ads on your smartphone, The Hive and a lot more. But most of all, you do the biggest thing you can to make TPM better, help us thrive rather than merely survive. It's as simple as that. As I've said a number of times, if you feel like you need us, then we need you. We need you to become part of what we do, become a member. It's just 14 cents a day. Not a lot for most of you. So take this moment, right now, just set aside 3 or 4 minutes and become part of our team. Click right here.

The Real Key in The Electoral College

Based on a group of new state polls this morning, Hillary Clinton is back at 335 electoral votes in her column versus Trump at 164. Needless to say, that is a healthy lead. But the bigger number is that Clinton is now up by at least 10 points in states accounting for 263 electoral votes. I've noted that number a few times over the last week or so. Really though, the number is 273, which is just 10 votes more but a world of difference since you need 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. In other words, Clinton is ahead by at least 10 points in states which are alone enough to win her the presidency.

Read More →