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Did Jr Get Gas Chambers Talk from Dad?

As I mentioned a short while ago, who riffs about "gas chambers" in joking conversations or to illustrate some mundane aspect of the news of the day. There's gallows humor, even about the Holocaust, even among Jews. But this just seemed weird.

Is this how the Trump family talks?

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Okay, One Poll You Can Dismiss

As I hope I've made clear, bad polls from NYT/CBS, Bloomberg/Selzer, CNN/ORC, etc. - you can't dismiss those. Even if the internals look funny to you. Those are each premium phone polls with strong, national reputations. Emerson, which released another group of polls today, you can dismiss. They are one of the few landline only pollsters around today. And their way of adjusting for that shortcoming ("3 point decrease in Conservative opinion and a 3 point increase in Liberal opinion to offset the bias in land line only telephone polls") just doesn't cut it as a serious way of doing a poll, as I noted a couple weeks ago.

Looking At the Bigger Regional Picture

As of this morning, The TPM Electoral Scoreboard stands at Clinton 254, Trump 242. Pretty close to a tie. But beneath those numbers there are major shifts in the electoral landscape that transcend the dynamics of this election.

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Skateboarding the Abyss

We have another premium national phone poll (NYT/CBS) this morning showing a very tight race between Clinton and Trump. In a head to head, it's Clinton 46%, Trump 44%. When third party candidates are added they both drop to a tie at 42%. Two things that jump out to me aside from the near tie at the top are these points. One is that this is first Times/CBS poll with a likely voter screen. Among registered voters, it's Clinton 46%, Trump 41%. Now that doesn't mean it's really a five point spread. But it does suggest that assuming these likely voter screens are accurate, that the race has always been closer than the polls suggested.

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LiveWire

Clinton Postpones Trip To Charlotte

In a statement released Friday evening, Hillary Clinton's campaign announced that the Democratic nominee…