Opinions, Context & Ideas from the TPM Editors TPM Editor's Blog

A Thought

I'll say this again. I think the bigger danger for Trump is not saying something offensive or crazy. It's getting caught out with a question he doesn't know the answer to or doesn't want to answer and going off on a nonsense tangent. I continue to think the national security forum from earlier this month, the Matt Lauer one, is the best guide to what to expect.

Watch With Us

You'll almost certainly be watching the big debate tonight. Well, watch with us. I will be live blogging in real time. And the whole TPM news team we'll be here reporting out the details, fact-checking the fibs, grabbing the best clips. It's all hands on deck. Join us.

Who Is Richard Ebers?

One of the side avenues in the Fahrenthold blockbuster, which seems to provide good evidence Trump is evading taxes, is the name: Richard Ebers. In recent years, most of the money going into the Trump Foundation has come from Ebers - nearly $1.9 million in total. So if taxes are being evaded, most of it is on money paid to the Foundation by Ebers.

So who is Richard Ebers? He's basically a high-end ticket scalper.

Read More →

This Is Important

We're coming down to the wire in the 2016 election and that means we're also coming down to the wire in our annual Prime membership drive. Suffice it to say, if you're a regular reader of TPM and you feel like you need us, we definitely need you to become a member. It's that simple. If you're ready, take a moment right now. Not tonight or tomorrow, even though I know you're busy and in the middle of something - but right now. Click here to sign up.

More Polls for You!

As long as everyone has nothing to do but perseverate over polls until tonight's debate, I thought I'd give you a walk-through of the six national polls released today.

Monmouth: Clinton +3 Quinnipiac: Clinton +1 YouGov/Econ: Clinton +4 Bloomberg/Selzer: Tie Morning Consult: Clinton +2 Franklin Pierce: Clinton +2

Read More →

Storm of Polls: State of the Race

As media orgs often do before a major election event, various news organizations have released a veritable storm of new polls this morning. We have five new national polls just this morning along with a number of state polls. This comes after several key polls were released yesterday. As of this moment Hillary Clinton holds a .6 percentage point lead over Donald Trump nationwide. (When I first started writing this post we had four national polls and it was Trump +.1.) Meanwhile The TPM Electoral College stands at Clinton 264, Trump 221. From yesterday that takes into account Colorado moving back into the Toss Up category from lean Clinton.

Read More →

New Bloomberg Poll Show Tie Race

Bloomberg/Selzer is out with a new poll this morning showing a straight tie at 46% in a head to head race between Clinton and Trump. Trump actually leads by two points, 43% to 41% when third party candidates are added. For context, the Selzer poll is a highly regarded national phone poll, not one of the many more erratic online polls we've seen this cycle.

Read More →