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Trump is No Mystery. There've Been No Surprises.

Several times over the years I've told the story of the first big political prediction I got right - less than a year into my first job in journalism. It was the fall of 1998, in the build up to President Clinton's impeachment, and I was telling my officemates that I thought Democrats would pick up seats in the November election. I tried to write about it but my editor wouldn't let me. (He said I would embarrass the publication.) This was contrary to what virtually everyone else predicted. So what special insight did I have? Really, none. I watched the public polling and paid attention to what those polls were saying. Contrary to the widespread predictions of a GOP wave, they suggested a modest Democratic gain, which is precisely what happened. Everyone else saw the same polls. But almost everyone else had come up with explanations for why they couldn't be right.

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The Scorecard Grows

Our Official TPM Elected Official Trump Endorsement Scorecard continues to grow. See our five categories here. Check out the list and tell us if there are people we've left out. Remember we are only including sitting members of Congress and governors. At the moment we have only three in the "Endorse" category, though we know there are some members of the House that are still be added. Meanwhile, there are only three who are in the genuine "NeverTrump" category. The great majority are in the "support the nominee" or "fuzzball" category. Check it out and let us know who we're missing. Our panel of Trump taxonomy judges continues to evaluate where everyone stands.

Birds of a Bankruptcy Feather?

It looks like at a minimum, Donald Trump isn't planning on making much hay of Hillary Clinton's speech ties to Goldman Sachs. Why? Well, Trump's new national Finance Chair, Steven Mnuchin, is a longtime Goldman Sachs executive who spent 17 years at the firm.

But more notably, to paraphrase Austin Power's Dr Evil, Mnuchin seems to share with Trump a penchant for bankruptcy.

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Wow

It's worth taking a look at this to see just the level of clowns Donald Trump has surrounding him. Ben Carson, now running Trump's Veep search, suggests that Ted Cruz might take a quick appointment as AG to jail Hillary Clinton before being appointed to replace Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court.

It's good to know folks in Trump land are clear that the Department of Justice isn't supposed to be the President's personal army.

Thank You, Guys

After Trump kept using "Start Me Up" as his walk-out music at rallies and victory celebrations, I was starting to think, I really hope the Stones aren't okay with this. And now they're asking him to stop. Thank God.

I would note though that "Sympathy for the Devil" has a certain element of appropriateness and "Brown Sugar" might represent either some very consistent race messaging or perhaps some subversive counter-programming from someone in the AV team. The song operates on a few levels.

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