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Forget Everything Else. Look at Trump's Net Favorables

We've all seen the polls showing Trump as the forerunner in the massive GOP field with around 20% support. It's early. His name recognition is sky high. And with so many in the race you can be a frontrunner with a big lead without a huge amount of support. But here's a number that is genuinely a big deal.

We've assumed that Donald Trump is not only capped in a national race but also likely capped about where he is now in a GOP primary race because his negatives are so high and so many people that not only do they not support him but that would never support him under any circumstance.

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Times Has a Problem

For decades, the customary and accepted way to dodge responsibility for mistakes on your watch was to say, "Mistakes were made." Now the Times has upped the ante to "Mistakes weren't made." If all mailbag is any measure, it's having an effect.

From TPM Reader MT ...

Quick comment about your Biden piece, but really my comment is about Hillary and the Times. You capture the increasingly bizarre Times coverage of Clinton’s campaign nicely. From a personal perspective, when I saw the headline about Biden considering a run in the Times I immediately dismissed it as being newsworthy because it appeared first in the Times. I don’t recall doing that since the run up to the Iraq war and Judith Miller’s brilliant reporting. One difference, however. With Iraq, they get fooled. With Clinton, they are part of the disinformation process.

Behind the Biden Bubble

I'm a big fan of Joe Biden's. I think he'd be a great president. I'm less certain he'd be a great candidate for president - and his first two runs provide some basis for that judgement. I'm also a bit suspicious of a groundswell or campaign of anonymous leaks in favor of a Biden campaign, all or most of which seem to emanate from The New York Times, which is grappling - or rather, not grappling - with its own institutional problems covering Hillary Clinton. But here's one thing I've been watching closely: Over the past two weeks, among some of the most active and opinion leading center-left voters, those who believe Clinton will be the Democratic nominee has dropped dramatically.

Here are some of the numbers.

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The Declining Marginal Value of Crazy

Several days ago, perennial presidential candidate Mike Huckabee charged that President Obama was ready to lead Israeli Jews "to the ovens." A few days later, he said he might use not only the FBI but even the US military to prevent abortions. And around the same time, Ted Cruz called Obama the world's biggest funder of Islamic terrorism. There was a day when cracks like these would have stopped the political world in its tracks, spurring transgressive glee from supporters and outrage from liberals and normal people. But this summer, they've struggled to break through. And the reason is obvious: Donald Trump has flooded the market with a new, purer brand of Crazy that has left the other candidates scrambling and basically unable to compete.

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Good Times At Stone Mountain

Despite calls for participants to refrain from using racial slurs at a rally on behalf of the Confederate flag at the Confederate memorial at Stone Mountain, Georgia (aka the Confederate Mount Rushmore), things apparently did not all go according to plan. While most of the roughly 800 participants professed to be focused on heritage not race, some got into heated arguments with a mixed-race crowd of protestors there to voice their opposition to the flag and the monument.

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