Opinions, Context & Ideas from the TPM Editors TPM Editor's Blog

What Would It Mean?

Hpmo83r2i8cjp54mx9uj
Newscom

Let's flip the equation. Look at the electoral map at this moment. The current TPM Electoral Scoreboard puts 256 electoral votes to Romney's 206. 5 states are in the Toss Up category. One is literally tied: Florida. Dead even. The remaining 4 have tiny Obama leads: Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Virginia. And this is largely based on state polls which preceded the conventions, which had Obama at about his electoral floor.

Put it all together and Romney's best case scenario is a Bush v. Gore, Bush v. Kerry style victory. Very close. But Obama stands a reasonable chance of a decisive electoral college win.

Yes, the debates and a lot more are still ahead of us. And these are feel good projections for the Obama folks up in Chicago.

But what will it tell us about the country if President Obama, with a still fairly shattered economy and unemployment over 8%, manages not only to win reelection but win it by a clear margin -- perhaps even a decisive one in the electoral college?

Republicans, particularly conservative Republicans, are already warming up an answer. Romney was a phony conservative and a terrible candidate. So it doesn't mean anything other than we need to pick a better nominee next time.

But there's another read. Even in a terrible economy a Republican still wins Oklahoma and a Democrat still wins Rhode Island. They're just conservative and liberal enough that a rotten economy or a terrible candidate doesn't sway enough people off their partisan moorings to shift things. Is the country moving in a direction where the Republican party is at an inherent disadvantage in a presidential election? Is the Republican message lack sufficient traction when the whole electorate is engaged?

Or as George Will put it yesterday, "If the Republican Party cannot win in this environment, it has to get out of politics and find another business."