A pretty staggering number out of the new Daily Kos weekly tracking poll
. They asked voters, basically, how are sure are you you're going to vote next year.
The first number is certain or likely to vote; the second is unlikely or certain not to vote.
Republican Voters: 81/14
Independent Voters: 65/23
Democratic Voters: 56/40
Everyone knows there's an enthusiasm gap. You don't even need a poll to tell you. You can feel it. On the one hand you've got very gunned up conservatives, who make up an even greater proportion of the diminished GOP. On the other you've got a mix of demoralized progressives and other Dems who feel like they got the job done in November 2008 and have checked out on politics ... at least for now.
All together, it points to very, very rough seas in 2010.